Amazon(US:AMZN) Zhao Yin Guo Ji·2026-02-09 01:24Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Amazon (AMZN US) with a target price of $292.00, reflecting a 38.8% upside from the current price of $210.32 [1][4][15]. Core Insights - Amazon's revenue for Q4 2025 reached $213.4 billion, a 14% year-over-year increase, exceeding both the report's and consensus expectations [1]. - AWS revenue growth accelerated to 23.6% year-over-year in Q4 2025, driven by eased supply constraints [1][2]. - The management expects total revenue for 2026 to grow by 12% to $716.9 billion, with operating profit projected to increase by 17% to $80 billion [1][11]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, North America segment revenue was $127.1 billion, up 9.9% year-over-year, with an operating profit margin of 9.0% [3]. - International segment revenue was $50.7 billion, a 16.8% increase year-over-year, surpassing market expectations [3]. - AWS's operating profit margin (OPM) was 35.0%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous quarter [2]. Capital Expenditure and Growth Projections - Management anticipates capital expenditures of $200 billion for 2026, representing over 50% year-over-year growth [1][2]. - AWS's backlog reached $244 billion in Q4 2025, a 22% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 40% year-over-year increase [2]. - The report projects AWS revenue growth of 26% for 2026, supported by further easing of supply chain constraints [2]. Valuation Adjustments - The valuation window has been rolled forward to 2026, with the target price increased by 9% to $292.00 based on a 17.3x EV/EBITDA multiple [1][15]. - The report adjusts revenue forecasts for 2026-2027 upwards by 2-3% to reflect the stronger-than-expected growth outlook for AWS [1].