铝产业链周报-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall idea is to allocate long positions at low levels, reduce positions before the Spring Festival, and pay attention to capital sentiment. Although the supply expectation has improved, the current market sentiment of being bullish on non - ferrous metals remains unchanged [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - ly View - In Shanxi and Henan, bauxite prices are stable. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore remained stable at $61.5 per dry ton week - on - week. Alumina operating capacity decreased by 800,000 tons to 94.25 million tons week - on - week, and the national alumina inventory increased by 79,000 tons to 5.193 million tons. Electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 42,000 tons to 44.676 million tons week - on - week. Domestic downstream aluminum processing leading enterprises' operating rate decreased by 1.5% to 57.9% week - on - week. Aluminum ingot social inventory continued to accumulate during the week. The order support for recycled cast aluminum alloy was insufficient, dragging down the operating rate of recycled aluminum plants [4]. 3.2. Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US Treasury yield curve (10 - year, 2 - year, and 10 - year real yield), the US dollar index, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB [6]. 3.3. Bauxite - Domestic bauxite prices have been stable recently. Fundamental issues such as mining rectification, mine reclamation requirements, and strengthened safety and environmental supervision are difficult to solve in the short term. Most mines enter the shutdown period during the Spring Festival, and the resumption of production is generally postponed until after the National Two Sessions. The cost of using domestic ore is significantly higher than that of imported ore, and the continuous decline in the price of imported ore puts great pressure on domestic ore. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore remained stable at $61.5 per dry ton week - on - week. The shipping volume of Guinea ore increased, and the spot supply of imported ore increased, putting pressure on the ore price [9]. 3.4. Alumina - As of last Friday, the alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, unchanged week - on - week; the operating capacity was 94.25 million tons, a decrease of 800,000 tons week - on - week, with an operating rate of 82.3%. The weighted price of domestic spot alumina was 2,610.4 yuan per ton, unchanged week - on - week. The national alumina inventory was 5.193 million tons, an increase of 79,000 tons week - on - week. Near the Spring Festival, the operating capacity of alumina in the country fluctuates. Two alumina enterprises in Guangxi that had been under maintenance will resume production one after another, and two enterprises in Shanxi that had planned maintenance will carry out maintenance. The decline in bauxite prices provides room for alumina enterprises to reduce production costs and also opens up space for a possible decline in alumina prices [12]. 3.5. Important High - frequency Data of Alumina - The report presents data on the basis, alumina port inventory, north - south price difference, and alumina transportation volume [14][15][16][17]. 3.6. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.402 million tons, unchanged week - on - week; the operating capacity was 44.676 million tons, an increase of 42,000 tons week - on - week. New production capacity: The first - phase 120,000 - ton capacity of Tianshan Aluminum has reached full production, and the second - phase 80,000 - ton capacity is still under construction, expected to reach full production within the year. Zha Aluminum's 350,000 - ton capacity will be built and put into production and reach full production in 2026. Guangxi Longlin is accelerating the revitalization of 57,100 tons of idle capacity. Overseas, on the 11th, the first batch of 500,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project in North Kalimantan, Indonesia, started production. On the 15th, the first - phase 120,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project of Huatong Angola Industrial Co., Ltd. held an official commissioning ceremony, and full production may be achieved in the second quarter [19]. 3.7. Important High - frequency Data of Electrolytic Aluminum - The report presents data on the processing fee of 6063 aluminum rods, the forward curve of Shanghai aluminum, the price of thermal coal, and the import profit of aluminum [21]. 3.8. Inventory - The report presents data on the social inventory of aluminum rods, the social inventory of aluminum ingots, the aluminum futures inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the LME aluminum inventory [23][24][25][26]. 3.9. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises decreased by 0.6% to 58.3% week - on - week. The decline in aluminum prices did not effectively stimulate trading volume. Downstream die - casting enterprises mainly purchased for rigid demand and replenished inventory at low prices due to weak orders and the expectation of pre - holiday shutdown, with low inventory - building willingness. Insufficient order support dragged down the operating rate of recycled aluminum plants [29]. 3.10. Important High - frequency Data of Cast Aluminum Alloy - The report presents data on the average price of profile aluminum, the forward curve of aluminum alloy futures, the seasonal trend of the price difference between ADC12 and A00, and the import profit of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots [31][32][33][34]. 3.11. Downstream Operating Rate (First Part) - The operating rate of domestic downstream aluminum processing leading enterprises decreased by 1.5% to 57.9% week - on - week. The operating rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises decreased by 8.3% to 36% week - on - week. As the Spring Festival approaches, profile enterprises are in the year - end finishing stage, and the operating rate has declined. The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises increased by 2% to 66% week - on - week. The environmental protection restrictions in the central plains region have temporarily ended, and related enterprises have gradually resumed pre - holiday inventory - building, while accelerating the shipment of finished products to reduce inventory pressure. Can - making materials still maintain full - line operation, and the production lines of mid - and low - end products have seen an increase in operating rate due to the decline in aluminum prices and pre - holiday inventory - building demand [41]. 3.12. Downstream Operating Rate (Second Part) - The operating rate of domestic leading cable enterprises decreased by 2.6% to 58% week - on - week. As the Spring Festival approaches, enterprises actively adjust their production rhythm, resulting in a decline in operating rate. Although downstream cable enterprises have successively received power grid orders at the average price of last week, the shipment rhythm of leading enterprises has slowed down due to weak terminal提货 demand at the end of the year. The operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises decreased by 0.5% to 57.9% week - on - week. As the Spring Festival approaches, most enterprises actively reduce production due to the traditional off - season, and both production and on - hand orders show a slight contraction [45].