债券ETF周度跟踪（2.2-2.6）：年后债券ETF是否迎来转机？-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The bond market is continuously recovering, with the net inflow of interest - rate bond ETFs turning positive. The scale of interest - rate bond and credit - bond ETFs may increase in the future. Short - term financing ETFs are favored due to year - end cash withdrawal and redemption needs, and there may be an opportunity for incremental funds in science - innovation bond ETFs and benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs after the Chinese New Year [2][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 各类债券 ETF 资金净流入情况 (Net Inflow of Funds for Various Bond ETFs) - The bond market is in continuous recovery, and the net inflow of interest - rate bond ETFs has turned positive. Last week, the net inflow of funds for interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs was +1.268 billion yuan, - 7.003 billion yuan, and +1.096 billion yuan respectively, with a total net inflow of - 4.639 billion yuan in the bond ETF market. The scale of the bond ETF market is 721.328 billion yuan, down 0.57% from the previous week's close and 13.01% from the beginning of the year, but its proportion in the total ETF market has increased by 28bp [2][5]. - Short - term financing ETFs, treasury - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs led in terms of net inflow of funds last week, with amounts of +3.256 billion yuan, +1.293 billion yuan, and +1.096 billion yuan respectively. Science - innovation bond ETFs and benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs had relatively large net outflows, with amounts of - 8.056 billion yuan and - 2.453 billion yuan respectively [6]. 3.2 各类债券 ETF 份额及代表产品净值走势 (Share and Net Value Trends of Representative Products of Various Bond ETFs) - The shares of short - term financing ETFs and treasury - bond ETFs have increased. As of February 6, 2026, the shares of treasury - bond, policy - financial bond, local - bond, benchmark market - making credit - bond, science - innovation bond, corporate - bond, short - term financing, urban investment - bond, and convertible - bond ETFs changed by +1.8%, 0.0%, - 0.2%, - 2.3%, - 2.8%, 0.0%, +5.0%, +0.9%, and +1.5% respectively compared to the previous week's close, with a total change of +0.3% for bond - type ETFs [12][20]. - The net values of major bond ETFs generally increased, while the net value of convertible - bond ETFs declined. As of February 6, 2026, the net values of 30 - year treasury - bond ETF, policy - financial bond ETF, 0 - 4 - year local - bond ETF, corporate - bond ETF, short - term financing ETF, urban investment - bond ETF, and convertible - bond ETF changed by 0.68%, 0.23%, 0.06%, 0.03%, 0.04%, 0.03%, and - 0.02% respectively compared to the close on January 30, 2026 [21]. 3.3 各基准做市信用债 ETF 份额及净值走势 (Share and Net Value Trends of Each Benchmark Market - Making Credit - Bond ETF) - The shares of existing 8 credit - bond ETFs continued to have a net outflow. As of February 6, 2026, the shares changed by - 2.82%, no change, - 0.91%, no change, - 4.95%, - 1.48%, - 3.74%, and - 2.70% respectively compared to the close on January 30, 2026 [26]. - The net values of the 8 credit - bond ETFs increased slightly. As of February 6, 2026, the net values changed by 0.03%, 0.03%, 0.02%, 0.03%, 0.02%, 0.01%, 0.02%, and 0.01% respectively compared to the close on January 30, 2026 [27]. 3.4 各科创债 ETF 份额及净值走势 (Share and Net Value Trends of Each Science - Innovation Bond ETF) - Most science - innovation bond ETF products had a net outflow of shares. The total net inflow of shares last week was - 67.16 million, a 2.36% decrease from the previous week. The top three products in terms of share size were Science - Innovation Bond ETF Jiashi, Science - Innovation Bond ETF Yinhua, and Science - Innovation Bond ETF Penghua. The top three products with net outflows were Science - Innovation Bond ETF Jiashi, Science - Innovation Bond ETF Huitianfu, and Science - Innovation Bond ETF Fuguo [32][33]. - The net values of science - innovation bond ETFs continued to rise. As of February 6, 2026, the top - ranked products in terms of net value were Science - Innovation Bond ETF Wanjia, Science - Innovation Bond ETF Yongying, and Science - Innovation Bond ETF Huatai Bairui. The median net values of the first - batch and second - batch science - innovation bond ETFs increased by 0.02% and 0.03% respectively compared to the previous week's close [34]. 3.5 上周单只债券 ETF 市场表现情况 (Market Performance of Single Bond ETFs Last Week) - Convertible - bond ETFs led in terms of decline. Most bond ETF product net values increased last week, with 30 - year treasury - bond ETF and 30 - year treasury - bond ETF Boshi leading the increase, up 0.93% and 0.92% respectively. Only convertible - bond ETF and Shanghai - Stock - Exchange Convertible - Bond ETF had a slight decline in net value, down 0.30% and 0.23% respectively [37]. - In terms of premium - discount rates, 30 - year treasury - bond ETF Boshi, 30 - year treasury - bond ETF, and treasury - bond ETF had leading premium rates. Among science - innovation bond ETFs, the premium - discount performance of each product was differentiated, with Science - Innovation Bond ETF Yinhua and Science - Innovation Bond ETF Fuguo having a slight premium [37]. - In terms of scale changes, short - term financing ETF (+3.256 billion yuan), 30 - year treasury - bond ETF (+842 million yuan), and 30 - year treasury - bond ETF Boshi (+831 million yuan) had the highest net inflow of funds [37]. 3.6 基准做市信用债和科创债 ETF 的 PCF 清单边际变化 (Marginal Changes in the PCF Lists of Benchmark Market - Making Credit - Bond and Science - Innovation Bond ETFs) - The estimated change in the modified duration of Credit - Bond ETF Haifutong was relatively large (- 0.14 years). The average modified duration of new bonds added to the PCF lists of Corporate - Bond ETF Nanfang and Credit - Bond ETF Huaxia was 4.35 years and 1.64 years respectively. For products tracking the Shenzhen - Market - Made Corporate - Bond Index, the average modified duration of new bonds added to the PCF lists of Credit - Bond ETF Guangfa, Credit - Bond ETF Boshi, and Credit - Bond ETF Dacheng was 2.78 years, 2.72 years, and 0.21 years respectively [39]. - Bonds such as 26 Zhongjin K1, Shanmei KY07, and 24 Yankuang K4 were repeatedly included in the PCF lists of benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs, mainly from industries such as Coal II, Non - Banking Finance, Construction, and Public Utilities II. Bonds such as 24 Baju K1, 24 Zhongmei K2, and 25 Zhaozheng K2 were repeatedly removed from the PCF lists of benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs [40]. - The estimated changes in the modified durations of Science - Innovation Bond ETF Tianhong and Science - Innovation Bond ETF Jiashi were relatively large, - 0.12 years and - 0.09 years respectively. The average modified duration of new bonds added to the PCF list of Science - Innovation Bond ETF Tianhong was significantly longer than that of similar bonds, at 6.53 years. The average modified duration of new bonds added to the PCF list of Science - Innovation Bond ETF Boshi was significantly shorter than that of similar bonds, at 2.26 years [43]. - Bonds such as 25 Zhezi K2, 25CHNG2K, and Jingzi K14 were repeatedly included in the PCF lists of science - innovation bond ETFs, while bonds such as 23 Yuehuanbao K1, 24TCLK1, and 25 Jingzi K2 were removed from multiple science - innovation bond ETFs [45].