Holly Futures(SZ:001236) Hong Ye Qi Huo·2026-02-09 08:16Report Title and Information - Report Title: "Pre - holiday Market Sluggish, Disk Oscillates and Adjusts - Double - coking Weekly Report 20260209" [1] - Author: Zhou Guisheng [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints - For Coking Coal: Last week, the coking coal market had weak supply and demand, and market sentiment turned weak. With more coal mines shutting down near the Spring Festival, domestic supply tightened. Mongolian coal imports declined slightly. Although the daily average iron - water output on the demand side increased, it basically remained stable, and coke production remained stable. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened. Overall, pre - holiday market sentiment was weak, coking coal supply and demand were relatively balanced, and it would maintain an oscillating trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to post - holiday demand recovery [3]. - For Coke: In terms of supply, most coke enterprises maintained normal production, coke production remained stable, and steel mill coke production increased, with overall supply increasing slightly. On the demand side, terminal steel consumption was still in the off - season, steel mill profits were poor, iron - water production remained stable, and with steel mill coke inventories at a medium - high level, they mainly replenished stocks as needed. Currently, coke supply and demand were relatively balanced, inventory levels remained high, and the disk was expected to follow and maintain low - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to post - holiday demand recovery [4]. Summary by Directory Part One: Market Views Coking Coal - Supply: The开工率 of 523 sample mines was 86.67% (-2.46%), and the daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines was 75.45 tons (-1.62). The capacity utilization rate of 314 coal - washing plants was 35.54% (-1.26%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 26.31 tons (-0.46). The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased slightly last week, and overall supply continued to tighten [3]. - Demand: The daily iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 228.58 tons (+0.6), the blast - furnace开工率 was 79.53% (+0.53%), the available days of coking coal in 247 steel mills were 13.12 days (+0.09), and the available days of coking coal in 230 independent coking plants were 16.51 days (+0.79). Downstream purchasing enthusiasm declined [3]. - Inventory: The clean - coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 264.65 tons (-2.53), the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 1302.39 tons (+67.6), the steel mill inventory was 824.2 tons (+9.84), the clean - coal inventory of 314 sample coal - washing plants was 334.46 tons (+22.89), and the inventory at major ports was 272.76 tons (-13.62). Downstream inventories were relatively high, and purchasing enthusiasm declined [3]. Coke - Supply: The average profit per ton of coke for coking plants was - 10 yuan/ton (+45), the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking plants was 72.2% (+0.34%), the daily output of all - sample independent coking plants was 63.14 tons (+0.3), and the daily coke output of 247 steel mills was 47.24 tons (+0.23). The profit situation improved, but there was still price pressure [4]. - Demand: The daily iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 228.58 tons (+0.6), the blast - furnace开工率 was 79.53% (+0.53%), and the available days of coke in 247 steel mills were 12.76 days (+0.22). Steel mills maintained on - demand procurement [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 82.74 tons (-1.65), the inventory at major ports was 201.1 tons (-3.04), and the steel mill inventory was 692.38 tons (+14.19). The overall social inventory of coke increased [4]. Part Two: Macroeconomic and Real Estate Tracking - The report presents data on national fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year, national real - estate new construction, construction, completion, and sales area cumulative year - on - year, 30 - large - city weekly commercial housing transaction area, steel industry PMI, and manufacturing PMI, but no specific data analysis is provided [6][10][14][17] Part Three: Coking Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - The report shows data on Shanxi Jinzhong Jiexiu medium - sulfur main coking coal purchase price, national mainstream coking coal spot price comparison, coking coal spread tracking, 523 sample coal mines' clean - coal daily output and开工率, 314 sample coal - washing plants' clean - coal daily output and capacity utilization rate, 247 steel mills' daily iron - water output and blast - furnace开工率, inventory data of various parties, and Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian coal customs clearance vehicle numbers, but no specific data analysis is provided [20][25][30][35] Part Four: Coke Supply and Demand Tracking - The report provides data on Lvliang quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke ex - factory price, coke spot price adjustment schedule, coke spot price comparison, coke contract basis, coking enterprise ton - coke profit, independent coking enterprise coke daily output and capacity utilization rate, inventory data of various parties, and 247 steel mills' coke available days, but no specific data analysis is provided [58][60][62][65]