KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Changjiang Securities·2026-02-09 11:46Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Insights - The report highlights that the online demand for Moutai has shown strong explosive growth, supporting the price stability of Moutai. Additionally, some inventory replenishment demand has amplified the price fluctuations of Moutai. On the supply side, changes in the delivery rhythm have also caused certain disturbances to Moutai's wholesale prices [2][7] Summary by Sections Moutai Price Fluctuations - Since the beginning of 2026, Moutai's wholesale prices have experienced volatility. The price of original Moutai bottles dropped to around 1505 CNY per bottle at the start of 2026 but subsequently broke through the 1600 CNY and 1700 CNY thresholds by the end of January. As of February 5, 2026, the price rose to 1660 CNY per bottle [6][17] - For bulk Moutai, the price initially fell to 1490 CNY per bottle, then rose to 1650 CNY by the end of January, before dropping to 1570 CNY in early February, and finally rebounding to 1610 CNY by February 5 [6][17] Demand and Supply Analysis - Demand: The "i Moutai" app had over 15.31 million active users in January 2026, with more than 1.45 million users purchasing desired products, resulting in over 2.12 million transactions. The explosive online demand has supported Moutai's strong price performance. Additionally, some channel replenishment and purchasing demand have further increased price volatility [7][18] - Supply: During the Spring Festival peak season, demand is favorable, but the overall supply of Moutai is tight, with limited channel inventory. Some regions have applied for additional quotas, and certain distributors have begun selling March quotas for Moutai [7][18] Short-term and Long-term Price Outlook - In the short term, Moutai is expected to achieve a narrow bottom fluctuation as supply is gradually controlled, and demand is recovering. The acceleration of pre-holiday supply will help control prices post-holiday. In the long term, Moutai's price fluctuations will be determined by economic growth and supply growth factors [8][21] - The report emphasizes that Moutai's price fluctuations are fundamentally driven by supply and demand relationships. Demand is closely related to residents' income and consumer confidence, while supply is influenced by Moutai's pricing strategy. Since 2009, the number of Moutai bottles that urban residents can purchase monthly has fluctuated around a historical average of 2 bottles [8][22]