南华浩淞大豆气象分析报告：巴西收获进展加速，阿根廷关注降水

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is accelerating, with the harvest progress reaching 16.55%, higher than 9.84% in the same period last year, and market institutions are continuously increasing their production forecasts. Although Argentina faces a risk of production reduction, the overall abundant harvest pattern in South America is set [1][14][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Brazil's Soybean Situation - Mid - western Region - In Mato Grosso, the soybean harvest progress has reached 39.61% of the sown area, with a single - week progress of 14.64%, much higher than 28.58% in the same period last year. Dry weather has accelerated the harvest in the central - northern, northern, and western regions, and the harvested yield has exceeded the initial forecast [1][14]. - In the southwestern dry - farming area of Goiás, the harvest is accelerating, but due to excessive rainfall, the harvest yield varies, and in some areas, the grains are lighter and the quality has declined [1][14]. - In the southern part of Mato Grosso do Sul, water shortage in some areas has reduced the production potential, but other areas are still growing well, with 97.7% of the soybeans rated as good or above [1][14][15]. - In Minas Gerais, soybeans continue to grow well, but recent excessive rainfall has delayed the harvest in the irrigated areas [1][15]. - Southern Region - In the western part of Paraná, the harvest is underway. High - temperature and low - rainfall conditions have affected the soybean yield potential and accelerated the maturity of soybeans [1][15]. - In Rio Grande do Sul, the planting period has been extended, and sowing operations are still ongoing in the areas after the first - crop corn harvest [1][15]. 3.2 Argentina's Soybean Situation - The national soybean sowing work has ended. The proportion of crops in good condition or above has decreased by 9% week - on - week to 75%, but increased by 4% year - on - year. The proportion of suitable or better moisture conditions has decreased by 6% week - on - week to 59%, and decreased by 7% year - on - year [2][34]. - More than 40% of the first - season soybeans in the central Pampas Plain are in the critical yield - forming period. The moisture conditions in the central - eastern Entre Ríos and southern Córdoba are poor, while in the northern La Pampa and western Buenos Aires, the moisture conditions for crop growth are suitable [2][34]. - 16% of the second - season soybeans have entered the reproductive growth stage, but they also face water deficits, with some experiencing flower shedding and even plant death in extreme cases. The uniformity of rainfall in the next two weeks will have a significant impact on the final yield [2][34]. 3.3 International Soybean Annual Focus - Different months have different focus points, including US soybean export volume, South American production, global soybean ending stocks, Chinese imports, US and Chinese sowing areas, and US yield levels [52]. 3.4 Soybean Growth Cycle and Weather Requirements - Growth Cycle - Planting Period: The average daily temperature of the 5 - centimeter soil layer at the initial sowing stage should reach 10 - 12°C. After germination, the suitable temperature for seedling growth is 15 - 25°C, and the moisture should be maintained at 60% - 70% [60]. - Flowering Period: The suitable temperature for flowering is 20 - 28°C, and the soil water content should be 70% - 80% [60]. - Growth Period: The suitable growth temperature is 21 - 23°C, and the soil field water - holding capacity should be maintained at about 70% [60]. - Harvest Period: The suitable temperature is 15 - 25°C, the relative air humidity should be 50% - 60%, and the soil humidity should be maintained at 40% - 50% of the field water - holding capacity [60]. - Disaster Risks - Planting period: Floods and extreme droughts [60]. - Flowering period: Floods (continuous rain), droughts [60]. - Growth period: Heatwaves, droughts, and pests [60]. - Harvest period: Continuous rain and storms [60].