钢材周报：供需偏弱，钢价震荡运行-20260209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of steel products are weak, and steel prices are fluctuating. The supply side shows that steel mills are reducing production, while the demand side is weak due to the approaching festival. The cost - side support is weakening, and the steel market is expected to operate weakly and fluctuate in the short term, with attention paid to the demand recovery after the festival [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Steel mills are reducing production. The weekly output of rebar at major steel mills nationwide is 1916800 tons (-81500 tons), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils is 3091600 tons (-500 tons). From a process perspective, the long - process rebar output decreased by 48100 tons, and the short - process output decreased by 33400 tons [4][34]. 3.2 Demand - As the festival approaches, demand is weak, and the demand for hot - rolled coils has declined. The apparent demand for rebar last week was 1476400 tons (-287600 tons), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 3055400 tons (-58700 tons). The weekly average trading volume of rebar is 34800 tons, and that of hot - rolled coils is 25000 tons, with the trading volume of hot - rolled coils decreasing [4][43][47]. 3.3 Inventory - Rebar inventory accumulation has increased, and hot - rolled coil inventory has also accumulated. The total rebar inventory is 5195700 tons (+440400 tons), the social inventory is 3695200 tons (+395200 tons), and the steel mill inventory is 1536500 tons (+45200 tons). The total hot - rolled coil inventory is 3592000 tons (+36200 tons), the social inventory is 2804500 tons (+21500 tons), and the steel mill inventory is 787500 tons (+15000 tons). The inventory of major steel products is 9401300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 491500 tons, and the billet inventory in Tangshan is 578000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 49500 tons [6][50]. 3.4 Price - As of February 6, the national aggregated average price of rebar is 3306 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the national aggregated average price of hot - rolled coils is 3284 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton [10]. 3.5 Basis - As of February 6, the basis of the main rebar contract is 143 yuan/ton (+21 yuan/ton), and the basis of the main hot - rolled coil contract is - 1 yuan/ton (+17 yuan/ton) [5]. 3.6 Raw Materials - The cost - side support is weakening. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1470 yuan/ton, the price of main coking coal in Lvliang is 1483 yuan/ton, and the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port is 765 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week change of - 29 yuan/ton [15][16]. 3.7 Other Market Indicators - The profitability rate of steel mills has fallen to 39.39%. The molten iron output is 2285800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6000 tons. The blast furnace operating rate is 79.53%, a week - on - week increase of 0.53%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.69%, a week - on - week increase of 0.22%; the electric furnace operating rate is 57.33%, a week - on - week decrease of 13.33%; the electric furnace capacity utilization rate is 48.12%, a week - on - week decrease of 7.59%. The Tangshan blast furnace operating rate is 92.3%, a week - on - week increase of 2.46% [5][29]. 3.8 Industry - related Data - In November, steel exports were 9.98 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 197800 tons; from January to November, the cumulative steel export volume was 107.7 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.7%. In November, hot - rolled coil exports were 1.8303 million tons. In November, automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 173300 vehicles; automobile sales were 3.429 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 106900 tons. In November, new energy vehicle production was 1.88 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 108000 vehicles; new energy vehicle sales were 1.823 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 108000 tons. From January to December, national real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year - on - year, the cumulative new housing construction area decreased by 20.4% year - on - year, the cumulative housing completion area decreased by 18.1% year - on - year, the new commercial housing sales area decreased by 8.7% year - on - year, the new commercial housing sales volume decreased by 12.6% year - on - year, and the funds in place for development enterprises decreased by 13.4% year - on - year [60][64][68].