Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2026-02-10 02:43Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core View - In early 2026, the global financial market volatility intensified. The right - wing political trend after the Japanese election and the political crisis in the UK resonated, further increasing market uncertainty. The chaos in the two countries is the result of the transmission of internal economic contradictions. The global market risk has further increased due to the external factors of global geopolitical conflicts and industrial transformation [2] - The RMB exchange rate was supported. The US dollar against the RMB fell below the 6.93 mark during the session. In the short term, it may be supported by seasonal settlement demand and maintain low - level volatile operation. After the holiday, the endogenous appreciation power of the RMB against the US dollar may decline, and its linkage with the US dollar index may further strengthen [4] - The upward sustainability of the stock index remains to be observed. It is recommended to hold positions and wait and see. The bond market is not advisable to chase the high. The container shipping European line futures are expected to maintain high - level fluctuations in the short term. The new energy, non - ferrous metals, and other industries have different trends and corresponding investment suggestions based on their respective fundamentals [13][18][27] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - Macro: The political changes in Japan and the UK have pushed up global market risks. Key events include the optimization of refinancing measures by stock exchanges, political turmoil in the UK, expected slowdown in US employment growth, the early departure of the French central bank governor, and Japan's plan to discuss food tax cuts [1] - RMB Exchange Rate: The RMB appreciated against the US dollar. The US dollar index declined due to factors such as the recovery of the precious metal and technology stock markets, the strengthening of the yen, and China's suggestion to financial institutions to reduce US debt exposure. The RMB exchange rate was supported, and it is necessary to focus on US employment data and the Fed chairman's speech [3][4] - Stock Index: The stock index rose collectively, but the upward sustainability remains to be observed. It is recommended to hold positions and wait and see due to factors such as approaching the Spring Festival and the upcoming release of important data [5][6] - Treasury Bond: The bond market continued the upward trend last week. It is not advisable to chase the high, and it is recommended to close out previous long positions. Consider moving positions for the March contract this week [6][7] - Container Shipping European Line: The futures market showed a volatile pattern. The core contradiction is the game between the shipping companies' price - holding determination and the fundamental cargo volume support, with geopolitical factors as uncertainties. The short - term is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [9][10][11] Commodities New Energy - Lithium Carbonate: The futures price showed a narrow - range shock with reduced volatility. The downstream pre - holiday stocking was basically completed, and the supply - demand pattern remained stable. It is recommended to arrange a strategy to sell volatility [13][14] - Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: The industrial silicon market is under pressure, and the polysilicon market is relatively cold. Both are expected to maintain narrow - range fluctuations, and the industry is mainly focused on destocking [15][16] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price showed an oscillatory trend. Near the Spring Festival, the capital speculation degree decreased, and the volatility also declined. It is recommended to pay attention to the decline in volatility when choosing option strategies [18][21] - Aluminum Industry Chain: Aluminum is expected to oscillate and adjust, and it is recommended to build long positions or sell options at low levels in the support range. Alumina has a weak fundamental outlook and is recommended to sell deep out - of - the - money options or short after the sentiment subsides. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up ability to aluminum, and it is recommended to pay attention to the price difference between the two [21][22] - Zinc: The zinc price showed a narrow - range shock. The market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and it may follow the sector to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to arrange a small - scale internal - external reverse hedging strategy [22][23] - Nickel - Stainless Steel: The nickel - stainless steel market oscillated. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the long - term supply reduction logic remains unchanged. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of Indonesian policies on the supply - demand pattern [23][24] - Tin: The tin price stopped falling and rebounded. It is necessary to pay attention to the US employment and CPI data this week. It is expected to follow the sector to conduct a wide - range shock adjustment [25] - Lead: The lead price fluctuated narrowly following the sector. The supply is expected to be relatively loose after the holiday, and the demand is flat. It is expected to show a weak shock [25][26] Oils and Fats and Feeds - Oilseeds: The external soybean market rebounded weakly, and the internal market was under pressure. The supply gap in the first quarter is expected to be filled in the second quarter. The soybean meal is expected to follow the cost of US soybeans to rebound in the short term, and the rapeseed meal is difficult to have an independent upward trend [27][28] - Oils: The external oil market oscillated, and the internal market was waiting for the report. The palm oil is waiting for the MPOB report, the soybean oil supply is sufficient in the future, and the rapeseed oil supply expectation is optimistic. It is recommended to sell put options [29] Energy and Oil and Gas - Fuel Oil: The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly in the bunkering market. The fundamental situation is still poor, but the Iranian issue provides support at the bottom. It is necessary to pay attention to the geopolitical repetition [31] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The supply is relatively abundant, the demand is stable, and the inventory has decreased. The internal and external markets have limited upward drive, and it mainly follows the cost fluctuations [32][33] - Asphalt: The trading enthusiasm is gradually decreasing. The demand has dropped to zero before the holiday. It mainly follows the cost of crude oil to fluctuate, and the price may decline after the holiday [34][35] Precious Metals - Gold & Silver: The prices continued to rise. It is necessary to pay attention to important data and events in the future. Although the short - term operation is difficult, the medium - and long - term upward trend remains. It is recommended to buy on dips in steps and pay attention to position control [37][38] Chemicals - Pulp - Offset Paper: The pulp futures price decline was supported at a relatively low level. The fundamental situation is still relatively bearish, and it is recommended to partially close out short positions and conduct short - term range trading. The offset paper futures price oscillated, and the market is affected by multiple factors. It is recommended to return to range trading [40][41] - LPG: The LPG market is affected by geopolitical risks. The supply is relatively low, and the demand is at a low level. It is necessary to pay attention to the change of warehouse receipts and the impact of funds before the holiday [42][43] - PTA - PX: The PX - PTA market's valuation has been adjusted back to the fundamentals. The PX supply is expected to be tight in the first half of the year, and the PTA potential supply is large. It is recommended to buy on dips for PX and shrink the processing margin of PTA on rallies [45][48] - MEG - Bottle Chip: The demand for ethylene glycol is seasonally weak, and the supply - demand balance has improved. It is expected to fluctuate widely with the macro - atmosphere. It is necessary to pay attention to the geopolitical impact [49][50] - Methanol: The methanol market follows geopolitical and non - ferrous metals. The unilateral participation is difficult, and it is recommended to be out of the market during the holiday [51][52] - Plastic PP: The plastic and PP market continued to oscillate weakly. The supply and demand fundamentals have changed little, and it is necessary to pay attention to the inventory accumulation and marginal profit after the holiday [53][54] - Pure Benzene - Styrene: The supply of pure benzene is increasing, and the demand is stable. The supply of styrene will increase in February. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [55][56] - Rubber: The natural rubber market oscillated strongly under the support of macro - expectations and costs. The synthetic rubber market is expected to maintain range fluctuations. It is recommended to be light - position before the holiday and consider selling deep out - of - the money options [57][58][90] - Urea: The urea market is in a stage of over - supply. The price of the 05 contract is expected to rise, but the short - term may回调. It is recommended to be out of the market during the holiday [61][62] - Glass Soda Ash: The soda ash market oscillates weakly, and the industrial contradiction is accumulating. The glass market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the cold - repair of production lines before the holiday helps to relieve the inventory pressure [63][64] - Propylene: The propylene market is supported by fundamentals, and the cost fluctuates greatly. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of cost, supply - demand, and market sentiment, as well as the risk of funds before the holiday [65][66] Black Metals - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil: The rebar and hot - rolled coil market oscillated weakly. The inventory is accumulating, and the supply is slightly stronger than the demand. The steel price may test the lower limit of the shock range. It is necessary to pay attention to the price range of the main contracts [67][68] - Iron Ore: The iron ore market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The overseas shipment is seasonally decreasing, and the port inventory pressure is large. It is recommended to be cautious and wait and see before the holiday [69][70] - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal and coke market is in a state of weak supply and demand with narrowed fluctuations. The coking coal supply is seasonally shrinking, and the coke supply and demand are recovering simultaneously. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption rhythm after the holiday [71][73] - Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese: The ferrosilicon and ferromanganese market oscillated weakly. The cost provides support, and the downstream inventory accumulation exerts pressure. It is expected to maintain range fluctuations [74][75] Agricultural and Soft Commodities - Live Pigs: The pig price continued to decline. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand increment is difficult to match. It is recommended to buy on the rebound for the 05 contract [77] - Cotton: The cotton market is affected by factors such as the expected reduction of the new - season cotton planting area and the increase of the internal - external price difference. The short - term is expected to oscillate, and it is necessary to pay attention to the downstream import and new orders [78][79][80] - Sugar: The international raw sugar price is weakly operating, which is expected to drag down the domestic sugar price. The upward space of the domestic sugar price is limited [81][82] - Eggs: The egg spot price continued to decline. The pre - holiday stocking is basically over, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [83][84][85] - Apples: The apple market is at the end of the Spring Festival stocking. The short - term demand weakens, but the delivery contradiction provides support, and the downward space is limited [91][92] - Red Dates: The red date market has reduced arrivals before the holiday. The short - term price is expected to maintain low - level fluctuations, and the medium - and long - term price is under pressure [93] - Logs: The log market has insufficient liquidity. The inventory is at a low level, the overseas shipment has changed, and the market is recommended to wait and see [94][95][96]