Holly Futures(SZ:001236) Hong Ye Qi Huo·2026-02-10 08:38Report Summary - Report Title: "Supply and Demand Loose, Futures Market Weakly Operated - Iron Ore Weekly Report 20260210" [2] - Report Author: Zhou Guisheng [4] - Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: Currently, iron ore supply and demand are loose, and it will maintain a weak shock in the short - term. The overall supply has declined, the demand is weak due to poor steel mill profits, and the port and steel mill inventories have increased [5][6] Supply - Global iron ore shipments from February 2nd - 8th were 25.353 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.593 million tons. Australian shipments were 12.798 million tons, down 5.406 million tons; Brazilian shipments were 6.388 million tons, down 0.534 million tons; non - mainstream ore shipments were 9.907 million tons, down 0.727 million tons [5] - China's 45 - port arrivals were 23.613 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.234 million tons [5] - As of February 6th, the daily output of iron concentrate from 186 domestic mines was 456,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 58.45%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.53%. Mine concentrate inventory was 799,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 73,500 tons [5] - The shipping volume of Australian ore to China decreased significantly, and Brazilian ore shipments also declined. FMG and BHP shipments to China continued to fall, RT shipments to China dropped significantly, and VALE shipments decreased slightly [40][44][48] - The shipping price index decreased slightly, and the arrival volume decreased slightly, remaining at a medium level [52][56] Demand - In the week of February 6th, the daily average pig iron production was 2.2858 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 million tons. Terminal demand was weak, steel mill profits were poor, and pig iron production remained relatively stable. As the Spring Festival approached, steel mill restocking was basically over, and raw material procurement slowed down [5] - Steel mill blast furnace profits increased slightly, blast furnace operation changed little, and pig iron production remained stable [65][71] Inventory - Imported ore inventory continued to rise this period, the number of ships at the port increased by 5 to 111. Port congestion increased, arrival volume continued to decline, port clearance volume continued to rise, and port inventory continued to accumulate, suppressing the upward space of ore prices. Steel mill inventory also continued to increase, and steel mill restocking was basically over as the Spring Festival approached [5] - The clearance volume continued to rise, port inventory continued to increase, Australian ore inventory continued to rise, Brazilian ore inventory decreased slightly, coarse powder inventory remained high, and lump ore inventory decreased slightly [80][84][94] Price and Spread - Spot prices decreased slightly, the spread between high - and medium - grade ores remained stable, the spread between medium - and low - grade ores increased slightly, the spread between PB powder and Mac powder remained stable, the 5 - 9 spread fluctuated at a low level, and the 05 basis decreased slightly [7][13][16][20] - As of February 9, 2026, the spot price of Karara powder was 863, a week - on - week decrease of 19, and the equivalent futures price was 807, a week - on - week decrease of 20; the spot price of PB powder was 763, a week - on - week decrease of 19, and the equivalent futures price was 810, a week - on - week decrease of 21; the spot price of Super Special powder was 650, a week - on - week decrease of 21, and the equivalent futures price was 849, a week - on - week decrease of 23; the high - medium grade spread was 100, and the medium - low grade spread was 113. The optimal deliverable product was 62.5 BHP Blend [29] - The rebar - to - iron - ore ratio increased slightly, and the iron - ore - to - coke ratio decreased slightly [30] Strategy - The strategy is range - bound trading [6]