Jiayou International(SH:603871) GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-02-10 13:25Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the logistics and warehousing industry [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a turning point in the China-Mongolia business, with the steady recovery of traffic at the Ganqimaodu port, stabilization and upward trend in short-distance freight rates, and a continuous rebound in the price of Mongolian coking coal, collectively driving the company's performance into a recovery phase [2]. Summary by Sections Traffic and Freight Volume - The daily traffic at Ganqimaodu port has shown a steady increase, with an average of 1,495 vehicles per day from January 26 to January 29, 2026, representing a week-on-week increase of 22.2% and a year-on-year increase of 258.9%. Cumulatively, from the beginning of 2026, the port has recorded a total of 29,642 vehicles, up 37.2% year-on-year [5]. - The import and export cargo volume at Ganqimaodu port has also seen significant year-on-year growth, with January 2026 cargo volume increasing by 58% to 2.4532 million tons. By the end of Q3 2025, the cumulative cargo volume was 30.0266 million tons, with a narrowing year-on-year decline, and an annual total of 43.0585 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% [5]. Freight Rates - Short-distance freight rates have stabilized and begun to rise. In the first half of 2025, the average short-distance freight rate was down 34.5% year-on-year due to fluctuations in domestic demand for Mongolian coal. However, with the recovery in demand, the average short-distance freight rate has stabilized in the range of 60-70 yuan per ton, with a cumulative average of 66 yuan per ton in 2026. From January 26 to January 30, 2026, the average short-distance freight rate was 65 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous period but up 8.3% year-on-year [5]. Company Performance - The report indicates that Jiayou International achieved revenue of 2.486 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 30.61%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 313 million yuan, down 4.90% year-on-year. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 6.570 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.40% year-on-year, and a net profit of 874 million yuan, down 19.72% year-on-year. The increase in revenue and the narrowing of the net profit decline are attributed to the recovery of cross-border business with Mongolia and the rise in coking coal prices [5]. - The average market price of coking coal in the second half of 2025 increased by 29.13% to 1,383 yuan per ton. With the ongoing "anti-involution" policy, coal prices have stabilized and begun to rise, leading to a gradual recovery in demand for Mongolian coal, which in turn has driven the daily traffic and short-distance freight rates at Ganqimaodu port to rise, resulting in continuous improvement in the company's performance. The company has established a strong competitive advantage through strategic positioning in core logistics infrastructure at the port and is effectively consolidating its leading position and market share in the China-Mongolia business [5].