天康生物：业绩预告点评全产业链韧性支撑底部企稳，并购驱动扩张-20260211

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TianKang Biological (002100) with a target price based on the last closing price of 7.12 [1] Core Views - The company's performance forecast indicates a significant decline in net profit for 2025, estimated between 205 million to 305 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 49.59% to 66.12% [4] - The decline in performance is primarily attributed to low pig prices, despite an increase in the number of pigs sold, which is expected to reach approximately 3.19 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 5.34% [4] - The average selling price of pigs has significantly decreased, with the December average at 10.66 yuan per kilogram, leading to a total sales revenue of 4.547 billion yuan, down 10.69% year-on-year [4] - The company’s integrated operation model across breeding and other businesses provides stronger operational resilience compared to single-business models, contributing to a more stable performance [4] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected at 19.737 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 14.91% [5] - The net profit for 2026 is forecasted to be 667 million yuan, with a significant recovery expected, showing a growth rate of 126.21% [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2026 and 2027 are projected to be 0.49 yuan and 0.94 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14.45x and 7.54x [5] - The company is expected to achieve a total revenue of 27.040 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a consistent growth trajectory [5] Acquisition and Expansion - The company is progressing with an acquisition of 51% of Xinjiang Qiangdu Livestock Technology Co., Ltd. for 1.275 billion yuan, which is anticipated to significantly enhance its scale and output [5] - The expected pig output from the acquired company is projected to exceed 1.5 million heads in 2025, accounting for about 50% of the company's total output during the same period [5]