广发宏观：2025年四季度货政报告的四个关注点

Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The central bank plans to lower the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points throughout 2025, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate reduced from 1.5% to 1.4% in May 2025, aiming to decrease overall financing costs[3] - Short-term market interest rates are expected to operate within a range of 20 basis points below to 50 basis points above the policy rate, indicating a more stable operation of the monetary market[3] - The central bank emphasizes the need to guide short-term money market rates to better align with the central bank's policy rates, enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy[3] Group 2: Financing Costs and Economic Stability - The report highlights the goal of maintaining low comprehensive financing costs for society, indicating that current financing costs are already at a relatively acceptable low level[3] - There is a focus on stabilizing and expanding bank interest margins while ensuring sufficient liquidity for the banking system, suggesting limited probability for significant increases in short-term rates[3] - The central bank aims to improve the interest rate adjustment framework and strengthen the transmission mechanism of market interest rates, ensuring effective financial support for key sectors like domestic demand and innovation[3] Group 3: Exchange Rate Management - The central bank stresses the importance of the exchange rate as an automatic stabilizer for macroeconomic conditions and international balance of payments, advocating for a managed floating exchange rate system[5] - Emphasis is placed on maintaining exchange rate flexibility to absorb external shocks and provide room for independent domestic monetary policy operations[5] - The report calls for reinforcing expectations management to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate, aiming for basic stability of the RMB at a reasonable equilibrium level[5] Group 4: Risk Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected changes in the external environment, misinterpretations of the "deposit migration" issue, and unforeseen fluctuations in the financial market[6] - The report warns of possible underperformance in real estate sales and fixed asset investments, as well as the effects of anti-involution policies not meeting expectations[6]