NJBK(SH:601009) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-02-11 08:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for Nanjing Bank is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The approval of the major shareholder Jiangsu Transportation Holding to hold over 15% of the company's shares opens up the potential for further capital inflow, estimated at approximately 8.1 billion [6] - Nanjing Bank is expected to continue its revenue growth trend, with a projected revenue increase of 10.5% in 2025 and a stable net profit growth rate of around 8.1% [6] - The bank's strong performance is attributed to its advantageous government financing resources and the expected improvement in liability costs, which will help maintain a high single-digit performance in 2026 [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total operating revenue is projected to grow from 45,159.51 million in 2023 to 60,101.87 million in 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.48% in 2025 [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 18,502.08 million in 2023 to 23,616.22 million in 2026, with a growth rate of 8.08% in 2025 [5] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline slightly from 13.07% in 2023 to 11.85% in 2026 [5] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio is expected to remain stable at 0.83% from 2025 to 2027 [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 6.74 in 2023 to 6.22 in 2026, indicating an improvement in valuation [5] Shareholder Dynamics - Major shareholders have been actively increasing their stakes, with significant purchases amounting to nearly 120 billion in the first three quarters of 2025 [6] - The potential for Jiangsu Transportation Holding to increase its stake to a maximum of 19.99% could lead to an additional capital influx of approximately 81 billion [6]