东南亚和印度经济增长和钢材需求预测

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ASEAN - 5 and India are in a stage of rapid development, and steel demand is highly concentrated in construction and infrastructure sectors. By 2030, their apparent steel consumption is expected to grow, with India having higher demand elasticity and greater incremental potential [2][3][121]. - The combined apparent steel consumption of the ASEAN - 5 and India may reach approximately 270 million tons in 2030, with a CAGR of about 5.8%, and an additional demand of approximately 116 million tons of iron ore. India is the main source of this increment [9][121]. - In a pessimistic scenario in 2026, China's steel demand will decline by about 10 million tons, while the ASEAN - 5 and India will drive an annual demand increment of about 14 million tons. The demand increment from emerging markets can offset the reduction in domestic demand in China, promoting the bottom - out and stabilization of ferrous metal prices [10][122][119]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - Steel consumption in the ASEAN - 5 and India is highly concentrated in construction and infrastructure. Fluctuations in steel demand depend on infrastructure investment and urban construction. Per capita GDP, urbanization rate, and steel usage intensity can describe the development stage of each economy and have guiding significance for incremental projection [7]. - Each country has its own steel - demand characteristics. Malaysia and Thailand's steel - demand growth is stabilizing, Vietnam has high demand elasticity, Indonesia and the Philippines have an infrastructure - led demand structure, and India has prominent steel - demand growth potential [8][121]. 3.2 The Basic Situation of the ASEAN - 5 and India 3.2.1 Vietnam - In 2024, Vietnam's per capita GDP was approximately $4,717, and the urbanization rate was 40.2%, with manufacturing value - added accounting for about 23.4% of GDP. Its steel consumption in 2023 was about 21.17 million tons, with construction accounting for about 89%. Steel demand has medium - term elasticity and sustainability [12][13][124]. - Vietnam coordinates industrial upgrading and investment expansion by prioritizing manufacturing and infrastructure construction, such as the North - South high - speed railway and industrial park expansion [14][125]. 3.2.2 Malaysia - As of 2024, Malaysia's per capita GDP was approximately $11,867, and the urbanization rate was 80.12%, with manufacturing accounting for 24.1% of GDP. In 2023, its apparent steel consumption was about 6.7 million tons, with construction accounting for 63.2% [17][18][130]. - Malaysia uses "Ekonomi MADANI (2023)" as a reform framework and promotes infrastructure construction. The "New Industrial Master Plan 2030" focuses on advanced manufacturing [19][131]. 3.2.3 Thailand - By 2024, Thailand's per capita GDP was approximately $7,345, and the urbanization rate was 54.32%, with manufacturing added value accounting for about 24.3% of GDP. In 2023, its apparent steel consumption was about 16.08 million tons, with construction and infrastructure accounting for nearly 80% [22][23][134]. - Thailand uses the "20 - Year National Strategy 2018–2037" as a framework, promotes manufacturing transformation, and focuses on the construction of the Eastern Economic Corridor and the China - Thailand Railway [24][25][135]. 3.2.4 Indonesia - As of 2024, Indonesia's per capita GDP was approximately $4,925, and the urbanization rate was 59.2%, with manufacturing value - added accounting for about 19% of GDP. In 2023, its apparent steel consumption was about 176.5 million tons, with infrastructure and non - infrastructure buildings accounting for nearly 80% [30][31][138]. - Indonesia focuses on the construction of the new capital Nusantara and "Making Indonesia 4.0" to promote infrastructure investment and manufacturing transformation [32][139]. 3.2.5 Philippines - As of 2024, the Philippines' per capita GDP was approximately $3,985, and the urbanization rate was 48.6%, with manufacturing output accounting for about 15.7% of GDP. In 2023, its apparent steel consumption was about 9.45 million tons, with the construction sector accounting for 81% [39][40][143]. - The Philippines uses the "Philippine Development Plan (PDP) 2023–2028" as a framework, promotes infrastructure construction, and takes infrastructure investment as the main line [41][144]. 3.2.6 India - As of 2024, India's per capita GDP was approximately $2,697, and the urbanization rate was 36.9%, with manufacturing added value accounting for about 12.6% of GDP. In 2023, its apparent steel consumption was about 133 million tons, with construction, infrastructure, and engineering/packaging accounting for the vast majority [46][47][147]. - India promotes manufacturing revitalization and infrastructure construction through policies such as "Make in India" and the "PM Gati Shakti National Infrastructure Construction Plan". In the Union Budget 2025–26, a large amount of capital is allocated to infrastructure [48][50][148]. 3.3 The Core Driver of Steel Demand - Steel consumption in the ASEAN and India is highly concentrated in construction and infrastructure, with a proportion of 55% - 90%. Steel demand mainly depends on construction and infrastructure investment [66][68][156]. - The relationship between steel intensity of use (I - U) and per capita GDP typically shows an inverted U - shaped pattern. Low - income countries have higher steel - usage intensity elasticity, and this elasticity converges as per capita GDP increases [70][71][158]. - Per capita GDP and urbanization rate are key exogenous variables for studying steel demand in the ASEAN and India. The urbanization process is an important driving mechanism for steel demand [76][164]. 3.4 Steel Demand Forecasting in Southeast Asia and India - A Three - Model Approach - The ASEAN - 5's development path is closer to South Korea and Taiwan, while India is more like mainland China. When the per capita GDP reaches around $12,000 - 20,000, the growth of steel demand slows down [77][79][165]. - The IMF predicts that the per capita GDP of the six countries will grow, with India's growth rate exceeding 9%. The UNCTAD predicts that the urbanization rate increase of the six countries is limited. The population growth rate of India, the Philippines, and Indonesia is relatively fast [89][92][93]. - Three complementary forecasting models are constructed: elastic net regression, per capita steel consumption regression, and historical path trend benchmarking. The final projection value is obtained by a dynamic weighted average of the three models [101][102][185]. - By 2030, the total steel consumption of the ASEAN - 5 and India is expected to increase from 203.9 million tons in 2023 to 269.8 million tons, with a CAGR of about 4.1%. India is the main source of demand growth, with an expected increase of about 51 million tons [111][113][191]. - The increase in steel demand will lead to an increase in iron ore demand. By 2030, the combined iron ore demand of the ASEAN - 5 and India is approximately 4.73 billion tons, an increase of over 116 million tons compared to 2023 [116][193]. - In 2026, China's steel demand may decline by about 10 million tons in a pessimistic scenario, while the ASEAN - 5 and India will drive an annual demand increment of about 14 million tons. The emerging - market demand can offset the decline in China's demand [10][119][195].