JHSY(SZ:002597) Orient Securities·2026-02-11 12:40Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 28.80 CNY based on a 20x P/E ratio for comparable companies in 2026 [3][6]. Core Insights - The recovery in external demand and new domestic scenarios are expected to drive a bottom recovery in the sweetener market [2]. - The price of sucralose has experienced significant fluctuations in 2025, alongside a notable increase in the prices of basic chemical products like sulfur and sulfuric acid [3]. - The company's projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 592 million CNY, 818 million CNY, and 870 million CNY respectively, reflecting a recovery trajectory after a decline in previous years [3]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is reported at 5,311 million CNY, with a projected slight increase to 5,412 million CNY in 2025, followed by a more substantial growth to 6,436 million CNY in 2026 and 6,628 million CNY in 2027 [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decline to 557 million CNY in 2024, before recovering to 592 million CNY in 2025 and reaching 818 million CNY in 2026 [5]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 19.2% in 2024 to 23.0% in 2026, indicating a positive trend in profitability [5]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a potential blue ocean market for sucralose as a new feed additive, with the company being the only one authorized to produce and sell it domestically for a five-year regulatory protection period [10]. - The approval of sucralose as a feed additive is expected to significantly increase domestic demand, particularly in the piglet feed sector, with a potential total demand exceeding 3,500 tons [10]. - The report notes that while the export volume of sucralose is projected to decline by 19% in 2025, there are signs of recovery in export volumes towards the end of 2025, indicating a potential turnaround in external demand [10].