JHSY(SZ:002597) Orient Securities·2026-02-11 13:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 28.80 CNY based on a 20x P/E ratio for comparable companies in 2026 [3][6]. Core Insights - The recovery in external demand and new domestic scenarios are expected to drive a bottom-up recovery in the sweetener market [2]. - The price of sucralose experienced significant fluctuations in 2025, alongside a notable increase in the prices of basic chemical products like sulfur and sulfuric acid [3]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 5.92 billion CNY, 8.18 billion CNY, and 8.70 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a recovery trajectory after a decline in previous years [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is forecasted to be 5,412 million CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 2.1%, followed by 6,436 million CNY in 2026, reflecting an 18.9% increase [5]. - The company's net profit for 2025 is estimated at 592 million CNY, with a projected growth of 6.3% in 2026, reaching 818 million CNY [5]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 21.2% in 2025 to 23.0% in 2026, while the net margin is projected to rise from 10.9% to 12.7% in the same period [5]. Market Dynamics - The supply landscape for sweeteners is anticipated to continue optimizing, with signs of recovery in sucralose exports and positive external demand signals emerging [10]. - The approval of sucralose as a new feed additive for weaned piglets marks a significant opportunity for the company, potentially leading to a demand exceeding 3,500 tons in the domestic market during the five-year regulatory protection period [10].