国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品-20260212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm Oil: With limited fundamental drivers, it is expected to undergo a sideways adjustment [2][4]. - Soybean Oil: The report lacks highlights, and it is likely to trade within a range [2][4]. - Soybean Meal: After the overnight slight increase in US soybeans, the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate [2][11]. - Soybean: The market is strong, and attention should be paid to changes in positions [2][11]. - Corn: It is expected to be slightly bullish and fluctuate upwards [2][14]. - Sugar: Attention should be paid to low - basis opportunities [2][18]. - Cotton: It is expected to maintain a sideways trend before the holiday [2][23]. - Eggs: It is expected to undergo a sideways adjustment [2][27]. - Hogs: The peak - season stocking is over, and the futures price has a premium over the small - standard warehouse receipts [2][35]. - Peanuts: It is expected to trade sideways [2][36]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the palm oil main contract on the day session was 8,906 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.38%, and 8,868 yuan/ton at night, down 0.43%. The trading volume decreased by 91,226 lots, and the open interest decreased by 7,350 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 8,950 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton. The basis was 44 yuan/ton [4]. - Macro and Industry News: From February 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 9.16% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.3%, and the production decreased by 7.58%. Indonesia's decision to suspend the expansion of biodiesel blending ratio and the expectation of increased production in the coming months may put pressure on palm oil prices, but strong demand and overall slowdown in production growth may limit the downside. The GAPKI expects palm oil prices to fluctuate between 4,100 - 4,400 ringgit per ton in the first half of 2026 and then decline to 4,000 - 4,300 ringgit in the second half [5][7][8]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [10] Soybean and Soybean Meal - Fundamental Data: The closing price of DCE soybean 2605 was 4,519 yuan/ton during the day session, up 60 yuan (+1.35%), and 4,563 yuan at night, up 62 yuan (+1.38%). The closing price of DCE soybean meal 2605 was 2,773 yuan/ton during the day session, up 40 yuan (+1.46%), and 2,768 yuan at night, up 10 yuan (+0.36%). The trading volume of soybean meal was 4.54 million tons per day, and the inventory was 88.16 million tons per week [11]. - Macro and Industry News: On February 11, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to technical buying and expectations of Chinese demand. Brazil has started harvesting a record - high soybean crop, but the prospect of China buying more US soybeans has boosted the futures market. Heavy rain in Brazil's Mato Grosso state has raised concerns about soybean quality [11][13]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0, and that of soybean is +1 [13] Corn - Fundamental Data: The closing price of C2603 was 2,298 yuan/ton during the day session, up 1.37%, and 2,303 yuan at night, up 0.22%. The trading volume increased by 54,540 lots, and the open interest decreased by 47,441 lots. The closing price of C2605 was 2,316 yuan/ton during the day session, up 1.58%, and remained unchanged at night. The trading volume increased by 402,301 lots, and the open interest increased by 199,841 lots [15]. - Macro and Industry News: The northern corn bulk shipping port price remained flat at 2,290 - 2,300 yuan/ton, and the container - shipped first - class grain port price remained flat at 2,310 - 2,330 yuan/ton. The price in Guangdong Shekou also remained flat. The price of deep - processed corn in the Northeast decreased in some areas, while the price in North China increased slightly [16]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [17] Sugar - Fundamental Data: The raw sugar price was 13.84 cents/pound, down 0.28 cents. The mainstream spot price was 5,330 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures main contract price was 5,266 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. The 15 - spread was 46 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; the 59 - spread was - 9 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the mainstream spot basis was 64 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [18]. - Macro and Industry News: As of January 31, the sugar production in the 25/26 season in India increased by 17% year - on - year. Brazil exported 2.02 million tons in January, a 2.1% year - on - year decrease. China imported 580,000 tons of sugar in December, an increase of 190,000 tons. As of the end of January, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season was 4.03 million tons, a decrease of 790,000 tons [18]. - Trend Intensity: - 1 [21] Cotton - Fundamental Data: The closing price of CF2605 was 14,745 yuan/ton during the day session, up 0.61%, and 14,815 yuan at night, up 0.47%. The trading volume decreased by 134,609 lots, and the open interest decreased by 5,168 lots. The closing price of CY2605 was 20,590 yuan/ton during the day session, up 0.73%, and 20,650 yuan at night, up 0.29%. The trading volume decreased by 1,999 lots, and the open interest increased by 1,045 lots [23]. - Macro and Industry News: The spot trading of cotton was light, and the basis was generally stable. The cotton yarn market was in the final stage, and textile enterprises will concentrate on taking holidays in the second half of the week, resulting in a shrinking trading volume. ICE cotton futures continued to rebound slightly, and the near - month warehouse receipts continued to increase [24]. - Trend Intensity: 1 [25] Eggs - Fundamental Data: The closing price of egg 2603 was 2,923 yuan/500 kg, up 0.31%, with a trading volume decrease of 18,675 lots and an open - interest decrease of 17,042 lots. The closing price of egg 2604 was 3,156 yuan/500 kg, up 0.32%, with a trading volume increase of 3,339 lots and an open - interest increase of 411 lots [27]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [28] Hogs - Fundamental Data: The Henan spot price was 12,280 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the Sichuan spot price was 10,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Guangdong spot price was 11,660 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of hog 2603 was 10,845 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the closing price of hog 2605 was 11,555 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the closing price of hog 2607 was 12,260 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [32]. - Market Information: Guangxi Yangxiang registered 100 lots of warehouse receipts for the March contract; Dekang registered 525 lots; Fuyuan registered 22 lots; and Muyuan registered 80 lots [33]. - Trend Intensity: - 1 [34] Peanuts - Fundamental Data: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 9,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Henan Baisha general peanuts was 7,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Xingcheng Xiaoriben peanuts was 8,660 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Sudan refined peanuts was 8,650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of PK603 was 8,020 yuan/ton, down 0.32%; the closing price of PK605 was 7,970 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [36]. - Spot Market Focus: In Henan, Nanyang Baisha general peanuts were around 3.6 - 3.8 yuan/jin, and Kaifeng large peanuts were around 3.9 - 3.95 yuan/jin. In Jilin, 308 general peanuts were around 4.6 - 4.7 yuan/jin. In Liaoning, 308 general peanuts were around 4.5 - 4.6 yuan/jin. In Shandong, most areas had basically ended pre - holiday trading [37]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [38]