科伦药业：创新逐步兑现，期待主业复苏-20260212

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to Kelun Pharmaceutical [13] Core Views - The approval of the fourth indication for the subsidiary's core asset SKB264 in China is a positive development, indicating that the sales of innovative drugs are gradually materializing, and there is an expectation for the recovery of the main business [2][13] - The report anticipates total revenue for 2025-2027 to be 174.2 billion, 197.6 billion, and 225.7 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -20.1%, 13.4%, and 14.2% [13] - Expected EPS for 2025-2027 is projected to be 0.93, 1.14, and 1.72 yuan [13] - The report highlights that Kelun Pharmaceutical, as a leading company in the industry, has stable business development, and the first product from Kelun Botai is about to be launched overseas, which supports the outlook for the company's innovative drug business [13] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 21,454 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.7% [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2,456 million yuan in 2023, reflecting a significant increase of 44.0% [5] - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, including revenue and net profit projections for the next five years, indicating fluctuations in growth rates [5][16] Market Data - The stock price range over the past 52 weeks is between 26.85 and 40.70 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 51,218 million yuan [8] - The report notes that the company has a total equity of 23,708 million yuan and a net asset per share of 14.84 yuan [9] Clinical Development - Kelun Botai has initiated nine registration clinical studies for SKB264 in China, with significant clinical trial results indicating improved progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) rates compared to chemotherapy [13]