Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Insights - The company, "Ming Ming Hen Mang," is a leading player in the casual food and beverage retail sector, focusing on a dual-brand strategy with "Zero Food Busy" and "Zhao Yi Ming Snacks" [6][17]. - The casual food and beverage retail market is expected to grow from RMB 2.9 trillion in 2019 to RMB 3.7 trillion by 2024, with a CAGR of 5.5% [6][41]. - The company has a strong market presence with 19,517 stores across 28 provinces, 59% of which are located in county and town markets, covering 1,341 counties [6][17]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of RMB 10,295 million in 2023, RMB 39,344 million in 2024, and reaching RMB 63,164 million by 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 140.22% in 2023 and 282.15% in 2024 [5][7]. - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is expected to rise from RMB 217 million in 2023 to RMB 834 million in 2024, and RMB 2,292 million in 2025, with growth rates of 203.45% and 283.44% respectively [5][7]. - The company’s PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 33X, 24X, and 20X respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [7]. Market Dynamics - The casual food and beverage retail market is characterized by a high degree of fragmentation, with the top five chain retailers holding only 6% market share in 2024 [6][55]. - The down-market segment is becoming a key growth driver, with GMV expected to reach RMB 2.3 trillion by 2024, growing at a CAGR of 6.5%, significantly outpacing high-tier markets [6][45]. Competitive Advantages - The company employs a dual strategy of expanding high-tier stores while penetrating lower-tier markets, enhancing its store network through a franchise model [6][9]. - The supply chain and logistics capabilities are robust, with partnerships established with over 2,500 suppliers, allowing for efficient procurement and cost management [6][20]. - The company is transitioning to a full-category "discount supermarket" model, optimizing store formats and expanding product offerings to enhance revenue potential [6][19]. Fundraising and Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to utilize raised funds to enhance supply chain capabilities, upgrade store networks, and strengthen brand promotion efforts [6][24]. - Future growth is anticipated through strategic investments and acquisitions, further solidifying the company's market position [6][24]. Valuation and Growth Potential - The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 631.64 billion, RMB 798.83 billion, and RMB 924.82 billion from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of RMB 22.92 billion, RMB 30.89 billion, and RMB 37.43 billion [7][8]. - The current market valuation suggests a potential upside of approximately 10% based on the average PEG ratio of comparable companies [7].
鸣鸣很忙（01768）：休闲食饮连锁头部企业，双品牌协同启成长新篇