百威亚太（01876）：收盘价潜在涨幅港元7.83港元8.90↓+13.7%

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 8.90, indicating a potential upside of 13.7% from the current price of HKD 7.83 [1][7][13]. Core Insights - The Chinese market is still in need of recovery, but the attractive dividend yield provides defensive value. The target price has been slightly lowered due to soft demand in the ready-to-drink segment and industry competition, while the overall financial health supports dividend payments [2][7]. - The company experienced a 4.2% year-on-year decline in revenue for Q4 2025, primarily due to a downturn in the Chinese market, despite strong double-digit growth in the Indian market. Adjusted EBITDA fell by 24.7% [6][7]. - Management aims to reignite growth in the Chinese market by focusing on expanding non-ready-to-drink channels, optimizing the product mix, and increasing digital investments [6][7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for 2026 are set at USD 6.07 billion, reflecting a 5.3% year-on-year growth, while net profit is expected to reach USD 679 million, a significant recovery from the previous year's loss [3][14]. - The adjusted EBITDA for 2026 is forecasted at USD 1.71 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 28.2% [8][14]. - The company’s dividend yield is projected to be over 5%, providing a cushion against downside risks [7][14]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date change of +3.16%, with a 52-week high of HKD 9.74 and a low of HKD 7.47, indicating some volatility in the market [5][6]. - The stock price is currently trading below its 200-day moving average of HKD 8.10, suggesting potential for recovery [5][6]. Regional Performance - In the Asia Pacific West region, revenue declined by 5.6% in Q4, with price pressures outweighing volume growth. The Chinese market specifically saw an 11.4% revenue decline, driven by both volume and price decreases [6][7]. - Conversely, the Asia Pacific East region, particularly South Korea, showed resilience with minor revenue declines and effective price management [6][7].