Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on the overseas education sector, specifically highlighting China Oriental Education as a key investment target [1]. Core Insights - The report indicates a positive outlook for vocational education training, with operational efficiency continuously improving. China Oriental Education is expected to achieve a net profit growth of 46% to 51% in 2025, with adjusted net profit projected between 767 million to 793 million RMB [1][7]. - The vocational training market is anticipated to benefit from an increase in high school graduates who do not enter university, leading to a significant rise in demand for vocational skills training [2][8]. - The company is implementing refined management strategies to enhance operational efficiency, expecting a gross margin increase of 5.2 percentage points to 56.5% in 2025 [3][9]. - Capital expenditures are projected to decline, with a forecast of approximately 660 million RMB in 2025, a decrease of 33.6% year-on-year, while maintaining a high dividend payout ratio [4][10]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The education index fell by 3.2% in the week of February 6-12, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 4.1 percentage points. Year-to-date, the education index has risen by 12.86%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 9.93 percentage points [6]. Company Updates - China Oriental Education has released a positive profit forecast for 2025, with an expected net profit growth of 46% to 51%, translating to an adjusted net profit of 767 million to 793 million RMB. The company anticipates a 6% increase in new training participants, driving revenue growth to between 12% and 46.1 billion RMB [7][8]. Vocational Training Demand - The vocational training sector is set to experience growth due to a mismatch in university enrollment rates and an increase in high school graduates. The number of high school graduates has risen by 2.6 million from 2021 to 2024, while university enrollment has only increased by 320,000 during the same period [2][8]. Operational Efficiency - The company is expected to continue its lean management approach from 2024, coordinating recruitment across schools to improve capacity utilization. The marketing expense ratio is projected to decrease by 2.5 percentage points to 21.2% in 2025, contributing to a net profit margin increase of 4.4 percentage points to 17.2% [3][9]. Capital Expenditure and Dividends - The company has initiated a vocational education center construction plan, with five out of six centers expected to be completed between 2023 and 2025. The capital expenditure for 2025 is estimated at 660 million RMB, with a high dividend payout ratio suggesting a dividend yield of 5.6% [4][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on Hong Kong-listed vocational education companies, particularly China Oriental Education, due to its strong growth prospects and operational adjustments aimed at capturing the vocational training demand from high school graduates [13].
海外消费周报：海外教育：职教培训景气上行，运营效率持续提升，关注职教标的中国东方教育-20260213