百威亚太（01876.HK）2025年报点评

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (01876.HK) with a target price of HKD 10 [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of USD 5.76 billion and normalized EBITDA of USD 1.59 billion for the year 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.1% and 9.8% respectively. The normalized net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 670 million, down 14.4% year-on-year. For Q4 alone, revenue and normalized EBITDA were USD 1.07 billion and USD 170 million, with a year-on-year decline of 4.2% and 24.7% respectively [1][5]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of USD 750 million, maintaining the same level as the previous year, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 153.4% [1][5]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Growth Rates: - Total revenue for 2025 was USD 5,764 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of -7.7%. Projections for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are USD 5,921 million, USD 6,033 million, and USD 6,150 million respectively, with expected growth rates of 2.7%, 1.9%, and 1.9% [1][10]. - Net Profit and Growth Rates: - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 was USD 489 million, down 32.6% year-on-year. Projections for the following years are USD 533 million, USD 563 million, and USD 580 million, with growth rates of 9.0%, 5.7%, and 3.0% respectively [1][10]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - The EPS for 2025 is projected to be USD 0.04 for the years 2026 to 2028, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 27 in 2025 to 23 in 2028 [1][10]. - Dividend and Yield: - The company maintains a high dividend strategy with a dividend yield of approximately 5.7% based on the current dividend payout [1][5]. Market Performance - The report highlights that the company faced challenges in the Chinese market, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 11.4% in Q4 due to weak demand in core on-premise channels. However, the Indian market showed strong growth, contributing significantly to overall revenue [5][6].