ORG Technology(SZ:002701) CMS·2026-02-23 13:19Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for the company, with a target valuation corresponding to a PE of 12X [1][11]. Core Insights - The company, Aorijin, is positioned as a leading player in the metal packaging industry, with expected profit recovery driven by industry improvements, accelerated overseas expansion, and product innovation [1][11]. - The company’s revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 reached 18.346 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.97%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.076 billion yuan, up 41.40% year-on-year, largely due to the acquisition of COFCO Packaging [1][16]. Summary by Sections Aorijin: Metal Packaging Leader, Profit Improvement Expected - Aorijin has a solid foundation in three-piece can business and has expanded into two-piece can business since 2012 through self-built capacity and acquisitions, including COFCO Packaging in 2025 [1][16]. - The company’s net profit is projected to be 1.16 billion yuan, 1.20 billion yuan, and 1.34 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a recovery in profitability [1][11]. Two-Piece Can: Profitability Needs Repair, Company Actively Seeks Breakthroughs - The domestic beer canning rate is expected to rise to 32% by 2024, with significant room for growth compared to developed countries [2][36]. - The company’s two-piece can production capacity is expected to reach nearly 300 billion cans after the acquisition of COFCO Packaging, enhancing market share and pricing power [3][11]. Three-Piece Can: Healthy Industry Development, Improved Customer Structure - The demand for three-piece cans in China is steadily increasing, with a relatively strong profitability compared to two-piece cans [5][9]. - The company has reduced its reliance on major customers, with the largest customer’s revenue share decreasing from 72% in 2013 to 36% in 2024 [9][11]. New Business: Integrated Industry Chain Layout, Gaining Initiative - Aorijin is expanding into the consumer and health sectors with its own brand products, including sports nutrition drinks and pre-prepared meals, leveraging its metal packaging capabilities [11][16]. - The company’s revenue from metal packaging products is projected to be 23.08 billion yuan, 24.47 billion yuan, and 26.06 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 69%, 6%, and 6% [11][10].