Sanmei(SH:603379) GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-02-24 07:25Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" to the company with a target price of 79.10 CNY, based on its strong position in the refrigerant market and expected growth in revenue and profit [5][20]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the refrigerant industry, particularly in the production of third-generation refrigerants, which are expected to see price increases due to growing downstream demand and supply constraints from quota management [2][12]. - The financial outlook is positive, with projected revenue growth from 3,334 million CNY in 2023 to 7,295 million CNY by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 21.2% [4][18]. - The company is actively expanding its fluorine industry chain, with ongoing projects in lithium hexafluorophosphate and various fluoropolymer production lines, enhancing its integrated operations [12][36]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is expected to grow from 3,334 million CNY in 2023 to 7,295 million CNY by 2027, with a significant increase in net profit from 280 million CNY to 3,101 million CNY over the same period [4][18]. - The company’s net profit margin is projected to improve significantly, with net profit margins reaching 39.5% by 2026 [4][30]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.46 CNY in 2023 to 5.08 CNY in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [4][20]. Business Overview - The company specializes in fluorinated refrigerants, with a significant market share in HFCs, which are crucial for air conditioning and refrigeration systems [22][24]. - The production quotas for HFCs are set to be managed starting in 2024, which will likely lead to price increases due to limited supply [22][34]. - The company holds a leading position in HFC production capacity, with substantial quotas for HFC-134a, HFC-125, HFC-32, and HFC-143a, accounting for significant portions of national production quotas [24][25]. Market Trends - The demand for third-generation refrigerants is expected to remain strong, driven by growth in the home appliance and automotive sectors, with air conditioning production projected to increase from 210 million units in 2020 to 267 million units by 2025 [32][33]. - The average market price for R32 is anticipated to rise from 13,472 CNY per ton in early 2023 to 63,000 CNY per ton by early 2026, reflecting a 368% increase [34][35]. - The automotive air conditioning market for R134a is also expected to see significant price increases, from 23,500 CNY per ton to 58,000 CNY per ton over the same period, marking a 146.81% rise [34][35].