wanhua(SH:600309) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2026-02-24 09:04Group 1 - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintain) [3] - Core View: The polyurethane industry is experiencing a marginal improvement in supply and demand, indicating a cyclical recovery [4][8] - The global polyurethane market is expected to grow from USD 91.49 billion in 2024 to USD 135.1 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 4.4% [5][22] Group 2 - The demand for MDI is expected to grow at a rate approximately double that of GDP, with global consumption projected at 8.54 million tons in 2024 [6][32] - The company holds a significant market share in MDI, with a global market share of 33.8%, expected to increase to 38.3% [6][8] - The company has a robust cost advantage due to continuous technological iterations, with energy consumption per ton reduced by over 70% since 2005 [7][12] Group 3 - The company’s core polyurethane raw material production capacity is expected to reach 6.86 million tons per year by the end of 2024, up from 4.16 million tons in 2021 [6][8] - The company’s profitability is expected to recover significantly, with projected net profits of CNY 12.31 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 34% in 2026 [7][8] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the cyclical recovery in the polyurethane industry, with a strong pricing power and stable profitability [7][8]