10年国债突破阻力位，交易机构呈现分化

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On February 9, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond (250016) broke through the 1.8% resistance level and continued to decline until February 12, but rebounded on February 13, showing signs of a volatile market [2][97]. - Different types of institutions played different roles in this long - bond market. Brokers were the core driving force for the decline in yields, large - scale banks provided stable support, and small and medium - sized banks showed a strong desire to take profits [2][97]. - Due to the differentiated behavior of institutions, potential government bond supply pressure, and other factors, the room for further decline in bond market yields may be limited, and the market may show a volatile trend in the short term [2][98]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Matters - On February 13, the central bank carried out a 1000 - billion - yuan 6 - month (182 - day) buy - out reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 500 billion yuan, aiming to supplement liquidity gaps and smooth seasonal fluctuations [5]. - In January 2026, the increment of social financing scale was 7.22 trillion yuan, with an increase of 166.2 billion yuan year - on - year. The financing support of the government sector for social financing was still obvious, and short - term loans increased year - on - year [7]. - In January 2026, the housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities showed a trend of "narrower month - on - month decline and wider year - on - year decline", and the second - hand housing market showed a more obvious signal of narrowing decline [12]. - An important article in Qiushi Magazine emphasized promoting investment to stop falling and rebound, expanding domestic demand, and promoting consumption [14]. - The US Supreme Court ruled that the "reciprocal tariff" was invalid, and Trump announced a "global import tariff", which may intensify global trade frictions and bring trading opportunities for bond assets [15][16]. 3.2 Money Market - From February 9 to 14, the central bank net invested 124.69 billion yuan through short - term reverse repurchase operations. The 7 - day funding rate before the holiday declined compared with the first week of February [17][18]. - Before the holiday, the issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) was 712.92 billion yuan, with a net financing scale of - 234.43 billion yuan. The issuance scale of city commercial banks was the largest, with a net financing scale of 6.112 billion yuan [27][31]. - The secondary - market yields of NCDs showed a downward trend, with the yields of AAA - rated 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year NCDs declining [36]. 3.3 Bond Market - In the primary market, the supply of interest - rate bonds before the holiday decreased month - on - month. The issuance of Treasury bonds and local bonds before the 2026 Spring Festival was faster than the historical average. The net financing scale of special refinancing bonds reached 0.68 trillion yuan [40][49]. - In the secondary market, the bond market's breakthrough was mainly driven by trading. After breaking through the resistance level, the market showed signs of a volatile trend. The yields of Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds of different maturities changed, and the implied tax rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds increased slightly [40][52]. 3.4 Institution Behavior Tracking - In January 2026, the leverage ratio of institutions in the inter - bank market decreased seasonally, while the leverage ratios of banks and brokers increased significantly [67][68]. - Before the holiday, large - scale banks reduced their purchases of 5 - 10 - year Treasury bonds, small and medium - sized banks took profits on Treasury bonds, insurance companies bought more than 10 - year local bonds and took profits on more than 10 - year Treasury bonds, brokers increased their net purchases of 5 - 10 - year Treasury bonds, and funds increased their holdings of 5 - 10 - year policy - financial bonds and more than 10 - year Treasury bonds [67][81]. - The replenishment willingness of small and medium - sized banks was weak, while brokers and funds continued to increase their positions. The current average cost of adding positions of different institutions varied [67]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Before the holiday, the settlement prices of rebar futures decreased by 3.56% month - on - month, the settlement prices of wire rod futures remained flat, the settlement prices of cathode copper futures increased by 0.83%, the cement price index decreased by 1.39%, and the Nanhua Glass Index decreased by 2.89% [92]. - The CCFI index decreased by 3.03% month - on - month, and the BDI index increased by 8.32% month - on - month. The wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.87%, and the wholesale price of vegetables increased by 1.09% [92]. - The settlement prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil futures decreased by 0.78% and 1.12% respectively month - on - month, and the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 6.94 [92]. 3.6 Market Outlook - Considering the differentiated behavior of institutions, potential government bond supply pressure, and other factors, the room for further decline in the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond may be limited, and the market may show a volatile trend in the short term [2][98].