公牛集团（603195）：主业有望稳健修复+国际化加速，重视底部布局价值

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [6]. Core Insights - The company's traditional core business is expected to recover steadily, with international expansion accelerating. The report emphasizes the importance of bottom-line value [4]. - The company is positioned as a benchmark in the civil electrical industry, with a deep competitive moat in its traditional core categories. The report highlights the release of channel reform dividends and the ongoing enhancement of product, channel, and supply chain competitiveness [10]. - The company is expected to face pressure on traditional business sales due to macroeconomic factors, but the outlook for 2026 is optimistic with a potential recovery in real estate and consumer sentiment [10]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: 16,831 million - 2025E: 16,305 million - 2026E: 17,535 million - 2027E: 18,614 million - The expected growth rates are 7.2% for 2024, -3.1% for 2025, 7.5% for 2026, and 6.2% for 2027 [5]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2025E: 3,955 million - 2026E: 4,224 million - 2027E: 4,620 million - The projected PE ratios are 20 for 2025, 19 for 2026, and 17 for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [10]. Business Segments - Traditional Business: The company’s core products, such as electrical connections and wall switches, are expected to see steady growth, supported by product innovation and channel enhancements [6]. - International Expansion: The company is actively expanding into Southeast Asia and Europe, with a focus on home decoration products and energy storage solutions. The overseas sales revenue for the first half of 2025 was 142 million [6]. - Smart Lighting: The company is developing a competitive edge in smart lighting through AI and health-oriented products, enhancing its market position [6]. - New Energy: The new energy segment is expected to grow rapidly, with a revenue increase of 33.52% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [7].