wanhua(SH:600309) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2026-02-24 10:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wanhua Chemical [3] Core Insights - The polyurethane industry is experiencing a marginal improvement in supply and demand, indicating a cyclical recovery [4] - Wanhua Chemical is positioned as a leading player in the polyurethane market, benefiting from its scale and cost advantages [6][7] - The global MDI market is characterized by high barriers to entry, with Wanhua holding a significant market share [6][25] Summary by Relevant Sections Polyurethane Industry - The global polyurethane market is expected to grow from USD 91.49 billion in 2024 to USD 135.1 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 4.4% [5][22] - MDI demand is projected to grow at a rate approximately double that of GDP, with global consumption expected to reach 8.54 million tons in 2024 [6][32] - The TDI market is also expected to see growth, with China's consumption projected to increase at an annual rate of 4.7% from 2023 to 2028 [6][8] Wanhua Chemical - Wanhua's core polyurethane raw material production capacity is set to increase from 4.16 million tons/year in 2021 to 6.86 million tons/year by the end of 2024 [6][7] - The company has a competitive edge due to its advanced MDI technology, which has undergone seven iterations, resulting in significant energy savings and lower production costs [7][8] - Wanhua's profitability is expected to recover, with projected net profits of CNY 12.31 billion, CNY 16.53 billion, and CNY 22.30 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][8] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts a net profit growth rate of -6%, 34%, and 35% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21.6x, 16.1x, and 11.9x [7][8]