开源证券晨会纪要-20260224

Group 1: Real Estate and Construction - The real estate market continues to show signs of bottoming out, with a weak performance in new home sales during the Spring Festival period, reflecting poor supply and demand dynamics [3][9][12] - The land market has seen a significant decline in both supply and demand, with total land area launched in January 2026 down 16% year-on-year, and total land transaction value down 39% [11][12] - Policy measures such as the reduction of the value-added tax on second-hand housing and the lowering of minimum down payments for commercial properties indicate a generally accommodative policy environment [3][12] Group 2: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The pig price is under pressure post-holiday due to the end of stocking and limited weight reduction, with the average price of pigs at 11.66 yuan/kg as of February 13, 2026, down 0.40 yuan/kg week-on-week [4][13] - The supply side shows a slight decrease in the average weight of pigs being marketed, indicating ongoing pressure from large pigs and structural pricing risks [13][14] - The overall market sentiment remains weak, with expectations of a seasonal decline in demand in the weeks following the holiday [14] Group 3: Retail and Consumer Services - The retail sector is experiencing a steady recovery in consumption, with payment transactions on the eve of the Spring Festival increasing by 21.64% compared to the previous year [5][19] - Key retail and catering enterprises reported an average daily sales increase of 8.6% during the first four days of the holiday compared to the same period in 2025 [19][25] - Investment recommendations focus on high-quality companies in the consumer sector, particularly those in gold and jewelry, offline retail, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics [26] Group 4: Pharmaceuticals - The company has entered into an exclusive licensing agreement with GSK for two siRNA pipeline products, with potential total transaction value reaching up to $1 billion [6][28] - Revenue forecasts for the company are maintained at 143 million, 169 million, and 201 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a downward adjustment in net profit estimates [6][28] - The collaboration with GSK highlights the company's growing recognition in the small nucleic acid drug development field, paving the way for future global partnerships [28][29]