建发股份：供应链盈利稳，地产亏损减值-20260225

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between -10 billion and -5.2 billion yuan for the year 2025, compared to a net profit of 2.95 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - The company anticipates total revenue for 2025 to be between 673.6 billion and 693.6 billion yuan, with the supply chain segment contributing approximately 520 billion yuan in revenue and a profit of about 3.3 billion yuan [2] - The real estate segment is projected to generate around 157 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a year-on-year decline of approximately 15% due to reduced project deliveries [2] - The home furnishing mall operation segment, primarily through the subsidiary Meikailong, is expected to report revenue of about 6.6 billion yuan, with a net profit contribution of between -6.7 billion and -4.4 billion yuan to the company [2] Summary by Relevant Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - For 2025, the company forecasts total revenue of 690.37 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 1.56% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be -7.62 billion yuan, marking a significant decrease from the previous year [4] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be -2.63 yuan for 2025, with a recovery expected in subsequent years [4] Financial Metrics - The company’s total assets are projected to be 875.93 billion yuan in 2025, with total liabilities of 645.65 billion yuan [7] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be -10.82% in 2025, with a gradual recovery anticipated in the following years [7] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is forecasted to be 17.15 in 2026, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [4]