TKGF(SH:601233) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-02-25 05:25Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's performance in 2025 is in line with expectations, with significant profit growth driven by the recovery in polyester filament and refining sectors [6] - The demand for polyester filament is rebounding, leading to price recovery, with major companies agreeing on production cuts [6] - The PTA segment is expected to face pressure in 2025, but no new capacity is anticipated in 2026, suggesting a potential rebound in profitability [6] - The investment income from Zhejiang Petrochemical is showing signs of recovery, with expectations for improved refining conditions [6] - The profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted to 2.046 billion (originally 2.127 billion), with 2026 and 2027 estimates maintained at 3.693 billion and 4.987 billion respectively [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are 99,065 million, with a year-on-year decline of 2.2% [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2,046 million in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 70.2% [5] - Earnings per share are projected to be 0.85 in 2025, increasing to 1.54 in 2026 and 2.10 in 2027 [5] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 6.5% in 2025 to 8.8% in 2027 [5] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 5.3% in 2025 to 10.6% in 2027 [5]