2026年03月A股策略：3月市场热点或散乱，红利有望再受关注

Group 1 - The report predicts that both the macro short cycle and macro medium cycle in 2026 are likely to be in a bottom-up rising phase, forming an upward resonance pattern [2][14] - The GDP growth target for 2026 is expected to remain around 5%, with fiscal deficits and local special bonds likely to maintain levels similar to those in 2025 [18][20] - The upcoming National People's Congress and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference in March 2026 will clarify fiscal and monetary policies for the year [18][22] Group 2 - The A-share market is expected to experience scattered hotspots in March 2026, with historical data from 2017 to 2025 indicating a generally downward trend in March [4][25] - The sectors that have shown significant performance in previous March months include professional services, fisheries, computer equipment, and IT services, which have low overlap with the technology and "anti-involution" sectors that performed well in early 2026 [4][30] - The report anticipates that the Hong Kong stock market will follow the A-share market and remain in a state of fluctuation due to various factors, including the expected stability of the RMB and the impact of the upcoming political meetings [5][36] Group 3 - The bond market is projected to show a "bear steepening" trend in March, supported by a continued moderately loose monetary policy and increased confidence from the political meetings [6][39] - In the commodity market, short-term volatility in crude oil prices is expected to increase due to geopolitical risks, while precious metals and strategic metals are still viewed positively [6][43] - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" and national security strategies are driving demand for strategic metals, which are becoming key production factors [43] Group 4 - Long-term investment strategies should focus on sectors benefiting from the "14th Five-Year Plan," particularly in new productive forces such as technology and environmental protection [7][44] - Short-term opportunities may arise in traditional sectors related to "anti-involution," while defensive long-term capital is expected to enter dividend-related sectors [7][45]