快递行业点评：行业高质量发展，看好快递量价表现

Investment Rating - The report rates the express delivery industry as "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance compared to the overall market [3]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is expected to experience high-quality development, driven by the acceleration of AI replacement processes and policies aimed at protecting the rights of delivery personnel, which are likely to stabilize and increase delivery fees, leading to a recovery in per-package pricing and gradual release of profit elasticity for companies [3]. - The demand in the express delivery sector remains resilient, with a reported cumulative collection of 28.642 billion packages from December 29, 2025, to February 22, 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.4%, and a delivery volume of 29.369 billion packages, with a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [3]. - New policies regarding the protection of delivery personnel's rights are reshaping the cost and pricing structure within the industry, with the implementation of social security regulations expected to standardize costs across all players, thereby influencing pricing dynamics [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The express delivery sector is characterized by strong demand resilience, with companies rapidly resuming operations post-holiday and eliminating additional fees during the Spring Festival [3]. Policy Impact - The national postal conference in 2026 emphasized "penetrative" regulation to address issues related to delivery personnel's rights, which is expected to enforce a baseline for labor costs and stabilize delivery fees [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in YTO Express and ZTO Express due to their competitive advantages and expected profit growth, while also suggesting to monitor Shentong Express and Jitu Express for their performance elasticity [3]. - SF Express is noted for its management restructuring and business line adjustments, presenting potential opportunities for bottom-fishing investments [3]. Valuation Metrics - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the transportation sector, highlighting YTO Express with a projected net profit of 42.55 billion RMB for 2025 and a PE ratio of 15, while ZTO Express is projected to have a net profit of 89.93 billion RMB for 2025 with a PE ratio of 15 [4].