多资产周报“暴走”的汇率-20260228

Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB exchange rate strengthened significantly post-Spring Festival, with an average daily increase of 239 basis points, breaking key psychological levels of 6.85 and 6.80[1] - A concentrated demand for currency settlement emerged due to uneven workday distribution in January and February 2026, leading to a surge in settlement needs in late February[1] - Approximately $1 trillion of export earnings have been held in overseas accounts over the past 2-3 years, triggering a "herd effect" as these funds returned to settle in RMB[1] Market Trends - As of February 27, the counter-cyclical factor shadow reached a peak of 793 basis points, indicating regulatory measures to curb excessive speculation in the market[1] - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction of the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward sales from 20% to 0, reflecting a shift in monetary policy[1] - The current spread between the RMB central parity and spot exchange rate exceeds 700 basis points, indicating signs of overbought conditions[1] Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) data improvement in early 2026 signals a positive domestic economic recovery, providing intrinsic support for the RMB exchange rate[1] - For the week of February 21 to February 28, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.08%, while the S&P 500 fell by 0.45%[2] - The offshore RMB appreciated by 0.53%, and the US dollar index decreased by 0.11% during the same period[2] Inventory and Fund Behavior - Recent oil inventory levels reached 44,684 million tons, increasing by 46,224 million tons from the previous week[3] - The latest data shows a decrease in long positions for the US dollar by 2,121 contracts, while gold ETF holdings increased by 720,000 ounces[3]