Guotai Haitong Securities(SH:601211) Haitong Securities International·2026-02-28 23:30Liquidity Data - Year-to-date, global asset performance has become increasingly polarized, with Korea, Brazil, Taiwan, and Japan leading, while the Hang Seng Tech Index, India, and Nasdaq lagging[2] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has dropped sharply by 13.6 basis points to 3.95% due to rising risk aversion[2] - In Hong Kong, short-selling turnover remains high at 20%, while southbound capital inflows have slowed to RMB 67 billion, with a turnover share of 19%[2][22] Selected Research Highlights - The "Spring Festival effect" is observed in both Hong Kong and A-shares, with a tendency for a post-holiday rebound following a weaker pre-holiday performance[36] - Hong Kong IPO fundraising is expected to align with market trends, with total fundraising projected to reach HKD 644.4 billion in 2025, significantly higher than HKD 192.2 billion in 2024[42] - Geopolitical conflicts are impacting oil prices and shipping, with potential implications for market stability[50] Market Trends - U.S. equities are showing extreme internal dispersion, indicating that repricing has reached a near-term peak[51] - Recent U.S. inflation expectations have weakened, with reduced correlation to oil, copper, and the U.S. dollar index[54] - The People's Bank of China has cut the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio, which does not alter the medium- to long-term trend of the RMB[59]