CIG(SH:603083) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2026-03-01 07:28Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The situation in Iran has intensified, and the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has escalated. The impact on commodities and financial markets is significant, with energy - related commodities expected to be affected, and the financial market may face short - term pressure. A - share market impact is relatively small [5][9][10] Group 3: Summary of Important Time Lines - 2025 Jan 20: Trump planned to strengthen sanctions on Iran on his first day in office [2] - 2025 Apr 12: Before the US - Iran nuclear negotiation in Oman, the US deployed two aircraft carriers in the Middle East [2] - 2025 Jun 15: Israel launched the "Lion's Strength" operation, and the conflict between Iran and Israel escalated [2] - 2025 Jun 24: Trump announced a cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran [3] - 2025 Dec 28: Iranian merchants in Tehran's Grand Bazaar protested due to currency collapse, starting large - scale unrest [3] - 2026 Feb 6: The first round of US - Iran negotiations was held in Muscat, Oman [3] - 2026 Feb 7: The US announced new sanctions on Iranian oil trading entities [3] - 2026 Feb 17: The second round of US - Iran negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland, reached a general consensus on "guiding principles" with remaining differences [5] - 2026 Feb 26: The third round of US - Iran negotiations in Geneva failed to reach an agreement [5] - 2026 Feb 28: The US and Israel launched an air strike on Tehran [5] Group 4: Commodity Impact of Past Iranian Events Supply - side Impact - Iran's crude oil production capacity is 3.3 million barrels per day, accounting for 3.24% of the global total and 10% of China's demand. LPG annual output is 11.58 million tons, accounting for less than 1.7% globally and over 10% of China's demand. Iran is the world's second - largest methanol producer, with an annual output of 17 million tons, accounting for nearly 10% globally and about 60% of China's imports [6] Past Event Impact - On Jan 8, 2020 (Soleimani beheading operation), the market impact lasted 4 trading days. Fuel oil had the largest extreme increase of over 16%, and crude oil rose nearly 9% [6][7] - On Jun 13, 2025 ("Lion's Strength" operation), the market impact lasted 7 trading days. Crude oil and fuel oil rose over 6% on the day, and LPG rose over 5% [7] Safe - haven and Stock Market Impact - Gold and silver showed relatively restrained performance in the two events in 2020 and 2025, with overall increases mostly between 1% - 2%. The A - share market fell 1.22% on Jan 8, 2020, and 0.75% on Jun 13, 2025 [7][8] Group 5: Impact of Current Event - Iran launched a missile retaliation after the US - Israel air strike, blocked the Strait of Hormuz, and involved surrounding countries in the war. Energy - related commodities are expected to be affected in the order of crude oil > fuel oil > low - sulfur fuel oil > LPG > methanol > asphalt > plastic > polyester > propylene > PP. Silver's volatility is greater than gold, and gold has better stability. The impact on the European line may be greater and last longer than in 2025. The financial market may face short - term pressure, while the A - share market's impact is relatively small [9][10]