Cinda Securities(SH:601059) Xinda Securities·2026-03-01 09:16Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that after the Spring Festival, the Shanghai Composite Index has shown a fluctuating upward trend, with a clear characteristic of "weak technology narrative, strong inflation narrative," resembling the "HALO trade" discussed overseas. The overall market direction remains optimistic, but short-term fluctuations are expected as the Two Sessions approach [2][10]. - Seasonal patterns around the Two Sessions may impact short-term market volatility. Historically, the Shanghai Composite Index has a 90% win rate in the two weeks leading up to the Two Sessions, but this decreases to about 50% during the sessions themselves [3][11]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies may not constitute a core contradiction for the stock market in the short term, especially with the continuous appreciation of the RMB. The recent ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court regarding tariff measures has alleviated some pressure [3][14]. Group 2 - The next phase may see an evolution of economic and profit expectations, with March marking a transition from policy anticipation to implementation. Economic data is expected to show significant fluctuations, particularly in March and April, which could lead to market increases [3][18]. - Geopolitical conflicts, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, may continue to strengthen the inflation narrative based on energy security, creating structural opportunities in sectors such as gold, oil and gas, and military industries [3][19]. - The report highlights that previous bull markets in growth stocks were often accompanied by stronger ROE, and those that did not rely on profit realization tended to be short-lived [3][21]. Group 3 - The report suggests a strategic focus on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, military industry, and basic chemicals, which are expected to perform well due to favorable policies and themes. The oil and gas sector is also highlighted due to the geopolitical context and rising oil prices [3][24][25]. - The TMT sector is noted for its potential but carries profit concerns due to its "light asset" nature. The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors with strong performance verification and moderate trading crowding [3][26]. - The financial sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in valuations, driven by the stabilization of the real estate market and regulatory support for long-term capital inflows [3][27].