Jiayou International(SH:603871) GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-03-01 10:12Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the logistics and warehousing industry [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that the turning point for the China-Mongolia business has arrived, with a steady recovery in the traffic volume at the Ganqimaodu port, stabilization and upward movement in short-distance freight rates, and a continuous rebound in the price of Mongolian coking coal, collectively driving the company's performance into a recovery phase [3] Summary by Sections Traffic Volume and Freight Rates - The average daily traffic volume at Ganqimaodu port from February 9 to February 11 was 1,171 vehicles per day, a decrease of 4.3% week-on-week but an increase of 6.1% year-on-year. Cumulatively, as of 2026, the total traffic volume reached 41,734 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 42.5% [5] - In February 2026, the cargo volume at Ganqimaodu port increased by 218% year-on-year to 4.9525 million tons. By the end of Q3 2025, the cumulative import and export cargo volume was 30.0266 million tons, with a narrowing year-on-year decline, and an annual total of 43.0585 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6% [5] - Short-distance freight rates have stabilized and risen, with an average rate of 66 yuan per ton in 2026 so far. From February 9 to February 13, the average short-distance freight rate was 65 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous period but up 8.3% year-on-year [5] Company Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.486 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.61%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 313 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.90%. For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue was 6.570 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.40%, with a net profit of 874 million yuan, down 19.72% year-on-year. The increase in revenue and the narrowing of net profit decline were primarily due to the recovery of cross-border business and rising prices of coking coal [5] - The average market price of coking coal in the second half of 2025 increased by 29.13% to 1,383 yuan per ton. With the ongoing "anti-involution" policy, coal prices have stabilized and risen, leading to a gradual recovery in Mongolian coal import demand, which in turn has boosted the daily traffic volume and short-distance freight rates at Ganqimaodu port, resulting in continuous improvement in the company's performance [5] - The company has established a strong competitive advantage by strategically positioning itself in core logistics infrastructure at the port and is effectively consolidating its leading position and market share in the China-Mongolia business through the promotion of an integrated "goods and trade" business model [5]