Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold and silver: Geopolitical risks are the core of precious metals trading this week. It is expected that precious metals may open higher next week. If the geopolitical situation does not further intensify, they may show a pattern of opening high and closing low. However, the central price of gold is still expected to rise, and the geopolitical risk premium may have a certain persistence. Silver may have short - term upward space due to factors such as inventory depletion and the spill - over effect of funds within the precious metals sector [5]. - Aluminum and alumina: Due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, the overseas supply of electrolytic aluminum may be disrupted, and the supply chain of raw materials such as bauxite and alumina is fragile. Overseas aluminum ingot prices are expected to rise, and the internal - external price difference tends to be positive arbitrage. It is recommended to go long on the profit of aluminum plants, but there are certain risks [83]. - Cast aluminum alloy: The supply and demand are slowly recovering, and the price fluctuates within a range. The scrap - refined price difference has slightly declined, and the market is still relatively light [202][204]. - Platinum and palladium: The risk - aversion sentiment is fermenting, and the volatility is expected to increase. Platinum is expected to be stronger unilaterally. The platinum - palladium price ratio is expected to continue to widen, but it is not recommended to blindly chase the high [263][264]. Summary by Directory Gold and Silver Price and Performance - The price range of gold is 1100 - 1200 yuan/gram, and that of silver is 21000 - 26000 yuan/kilogram. During the holiday until the 20th, London gold rose 3.27%, and London silver rose 11.76%. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 63.5 before the holiday to 58.6 [5]. Transaction - related Data - Futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences of gold and silver in domestic and overseas markets are presented in detail, including changes in futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences between different contracts and between spot and futures [6]. Aluminum and Alumina Market Impact of the Middle East Situation - The Middle East accounts for about 9.4% of the world's total electrolytic aluminum production and about 3.2% of the alumina production. The export of electrolytic aluminum from Middle - Eastern countries is relatively high, and the Strait blockade may affect the supply of aluminum ingots outside the Middle East. The supply chain of raw materials such as bauxite and alumina in the Middle East is fragile, and the global supply of alumina may be affected [83]. Market Conditions - The short - term micro - demand for electrolytic aluminum is still weak, with inventory accumulation and spot discounts. The spot price of alumina has risen slightly, and the inventory has also increased slightly [84]. Transaction - related Data - The trading volume and open interest of aluminum and alumina futures have increased, and the internal - external price difference has narrowed. The spot premium and discount, monthly price difference, and internal - external price difference of aluminum and alumina have changed [85]. Inventory - The inventory of bauxite, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and processed materials has changed. For example, the port inventory of bauxite has increased, the total inventory of alumina has continued to accumulate, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased significantly [104][127][134]. Production - The supply of domestic bauxite is relatively stable, with a slight decline in February. The capacity utilization rate of alumina is basically stable, and the production of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level, while the proportion of molten aluminum has decreased seasonally [145][152][158]. Profit - The profit of alumina has slightly declined, the profit of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level, but there are uncertainties, and the processing profit of downstream products is still at a low level [172][182][183]. Consumption - The import and export of alumina and aluminum have changed. The export of aluminum products has slightly declined, and the consumption of real estate and automobiles is relatively low [192][194][197]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Conditions - The supply and demand are slowly recovering, and the price fluctuates within a range. The scrap - refined price difference has slightly declined, and the AD price is stronger than the AL price [202][204]. Transaction - related Data - The trading volume and open interest of cast aluminum alloy futures, as well as the price difference between different contracts, are presented. The cost of inter - period positive arbitrage and spot - futures arbitrage is calculated [207][210][212]. Supply - The production of scrap aluminum is at a high level in the same period, and the social inventory is decreasing. The import of scrap aluminum is at a high level, and the price of recycled aluminum has slightly increased [214][217][228]. Demand - The terminal consumption is mainly in the automotive industry, and the production of automobiles is basically the same as the previous year, showing certain resilience [258]. Platinum and Palladium Price and Performance - The price range of platinum is 560 - 700 yuan/gram, and that of palladium is 410 - 510 yuan/gram. This week, platinum led the rise, and palladium followed. The London spot platinum rose 9.4%, and the Guangzhou platinum futures rose 13.03%. The London spot palladium rose 0.56%, and the Guangzhou palladium futures rose 6.02% [263][264]. Transaction - related Data - The trading volume, open interest, price difference, and cost of various arbitrage strategies of platinum and palladium in domestic and overseas markets are presented, including futures trading volume, open interest, price difference between different contracts, and the cost of spot - futures, inter - period, and internal - external arbitrage [265][280][288]. Fundamental Data - The ETF holdings of platinum have increased, while those of palladium have decreased. The inventory of NYMEX platinum has decreased and then increased slightly, and the registered warrant ratio has decreased. The inventory of NYMEX palladium has decreased and then increased, and the registered warrant ratio has increased rapidly [301][307][310]. - The forward discount rate of platinum has a slight upward trend, and that of palladium has gradually become looser [305]. - The export volume of platinum has increased significantly since September 2025, and the import volume and net inflow have been differentiated. Palladium is in a pure import state [319].
国泰君安期货·有色及贵金属周报合集-20260301