期货策略周报：地缘政治扰动-20260302

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Pay attention to the seesaw effect between non - ferrous metals and anti - involution varieties in the past two months. When non - ferrous metals have technical adjustments, related anti - involution varieties tend to rebound [2][5] - As the near - month contracts of petrochemical and black varieties enter the delivery month, the anti - involution market may gradually emerge [2][5] - With the start of the Middle East war, methanol, crude oil and related varieties may show a strengthening trend [2][5] - After the Spring Festival, the mainstream funds in the commodity market changed their choice of varieties. Soft commodities, feed, and chemical sectors saw a large inflow of funds. Cotton, sugar, rubber, corn, and soybean meal are worthy of attention [4] - Gold and silver rebounded slightly after the Spring Festival, but their volatility decreased significantly, and it will take some time for non - ferrous metals and precious metals to oscillate and consolidate, increasing the trading difficulty [4] - Protein feed in the agricultural products sector is difficult to enter a bull market. The expected increase in the US soybean planting area and the high yields in Brazil and Argentina, combined with the anti - involution expectation of domestic pigs, may lead to a downward adjustment in demand, so soybean meal and rapeseed meal have limited room to strengthen [4] - The petrochemical sector in 2026 will operate within the anti - involution framework. Although the fundamentals are still not good, the worst is over, and the price decline is limited. The recent fluctuations in crude oil prices have driven some chemical products to strengthen. The local war conflict between Iran and Israel may drive the strengthening of crude oil, methanol, and precious metals, while OPEC may accelerate production increase, so it is necessary to be cautious about chasing high in the medium term [4] - As the coking coal 03 contract enters the delivery month, the support price of coking coal is further clarified. Under the anti - involution background, the downward space of coal is also limited. Disturbances in the internal and external supply may cause coking coal to fluctuate widely [4] - The anti - involution theme market in 2026 may be inevitable, and the timing depends on the implementation of local policies in each province [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Capital Flow - After the Spring Festival, funds flowed into soft commodities, feed, and chemical sectors. The total capital flow was 18.174 billion yuan, with 3.947 billion yuan in precious metals, 9.005 billion yuan in non - ferrous metals, 2.056 billion yuan in black metals, 913 million yuan in energy, 2.813 billion yuan in chemicals, 2.059 billion yuan in feed and breeding, 2.189 billion yuan in oils and fats, and 2.506 billion yuan in soft commodities [4][8] Black and Non - Ferrous Metals Weekly Data - The report provides price, inventory, valuation, position, position difference, and annualized basis data for various black and non - ferrous metal varieties, such as iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. For example, the price percentile of iron ore is 17.4%, and the inventory percentile is 100.0% [8] Energy and Chemical Weekly Data - It includes price, inventory, valuation, position, position difference, and annualized basis data for energy and chemical varieties like fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, asphalt, etc. For instance, the price percentile of fuel oil is 17.8%, and the inventory percentile is 64.4% [10] Agricultural Products Weekly Data - The data of price, inventory, valuation, position, position difference, and annualized basis for agricultural products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, etc. are presented. For example, the price percentile of soybean meal is 8.9%, and the inventory percentile is 100.0% [11]