两会在即，布局超长债与转债ETF弹性机会

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term bond ETFs are still constrained by the stock market. The net inflow of interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs last week was -3.293 billion yuan, -6.21 billion yuan, and +930 million yuan respectively, with a total net inflow of -8.573 billion yuan in the bond ETF market. The strong performance of the A - share market after the Spring Festival and the real - estate policy in Shanghai have affected the bond market sentiment [2][5]. - In the future, the fundamental repair expectations and allocation needs of interest - rate and credit - bond ETFs resonate. Long - end varieties have gaming value before the Two Sessions. The underlying assets of interest - rate and credit - bond ETFs have limited downside space, and the market is expected to continue the trading - style market before the policy implementation of the Two Sessions [2][15]. - For convertible - bond ETFs, the bull market in the equity market drives valuation expansion. Due to policy dividends in 2026, the net value of convertible - bond ETFs may still have room to rise. Given the limitations in individual bond selection, convertible - bond ETFs have higher tool - based allocation cost - effectiveness [2][15]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Various Bond ETF Fund Inflow Situations - The net inflow of interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs last week was -3.293 billion yuan, -6.21 billion yuan, and +930 million yuan respectively. The total net inflow of the bond ETF market was -8.573 billion yuan, with a cumulative net inflow of 7.818 billion yuan this month and -100.529 billion yuan this year. The bond ETF fund scale was 734.641 billion yuan as of February 27, 2026, down 1.25% from the previous week's close and 11.41% from the beginning of the year, accounting for 13.64% of the total market ETF scale, a decrease of 23bp from the previous weekend [5]. - After the Spring Festival, funds flowed out of short - term financing ETFs. The net inflow of convertible - bond ETFs led last week, while short - term financing ETFs had a net outflow of 2.938 billion yuan, and科创债 ETFs and treasury - bond ETFs also had relatively large net outflows [6]. 3.2 Share and Net Value Trends of Various Bond ETFs and Representative Products - As of February 27, 2026, the shares of treasury - bond, policy - financial - bond, local - bond, benchmark - market - making credit - bond,科创债, corporate - bond, short - term - financing, urban - investment - bond, and convertible - bond ETFs were 646.59 million shares, 350.39 million shares, 159.41 million shares, 1.02384 billion shares, 2.72782 billion shares, 334.91 million shares, 682.84 million shares, 3.05238 billion shares, and 5.50985 billion shares respectively, with changes of -2.7%, -3.5%, +0.3%, -0.4%, -1.1%, +0.2%, -3.7%, 0.0%, and +1.2% compared to February 13, 2026, and changes of +3.5%, +3.8%, +0.9%, -3.0%, -4.4%, +4.8%, +18.9%, +9.2%, and +3.5% compared to the end of last month [22]. - The net value of the 30 - year treasury - bond ETF led the decline among major bond ETFs. As of February 27, 2026, the net values of the 30 - year treasury - bond ETF, policy - financial - bond ETF, 0 - 4 - year local - bond ETF, corporate - bond ETF, short - term - financing ETF Haifutong, urban - investment - bond ETF Haifutong, and convertible - bond ETF Boshi were 1.2244 yuan, 1.1566 yuan, 1.1651 yuan, 1.1960 yuan, 1.1309 yuan, 1.4445 yuan, and 1.4570 yuan respectively, with changes of -0.62%, -0.11%, 0.03%, 0.03%, 0.05%, 0.04%, and -0.23% compared to February 27, 2026, and changes of 0.16%, 0.33%, 0.10%, 0.13%, 0.12%, 0.16%, and 0.80% compared to the end of last month [25]. 3.3 Share and Net Value Trends of Each Benchmark - Market - Making Credit - Bond ETF - The shares of existing credit - bond ETFs fluctuated slightly, with E Fund and Boshi achieving reverse growth in shares. As of February 27, 2026, the shares of 8 credit - bond ETFs were 103.46 million shares, 88.41 million shares, 106.54 million shares, 96.47 million shares, 174.83 million shares, 216.90 million shares, 92.90 million shares, and 144.32 million shares respectively, with changes of 0.00%, 2.31%, -1.84%, 0.00%, -1.13%, 0.60%, -2.11%, and -0.69% compared to February 13, 2026 [29]. - The net value continued to rise, with Dacheng, Southern, and Haifutong leading the increase. As of February 27, 2026, the net values of 8 credit - bond ETFs were 1.0193, 1.0185, 1.0170, 1.0173, 1.0123, 1.0153, 1.0163, and 1.0153 respectively, with changes of 0.03%, 0.04%, 0.03%, 0.04%, 0.03%, 0.02%, 0.04%, and 0.02% compared to February 13, 2026, and changes of 0.21%, 0.19%, 0.20%, 0.17%, 0.21%, 0.18%, 0.21%, and 0.20% compared to the end of last month [31]. 3.4 Share and Net Value Trends of Each 科创债 ETF - The shares of 科创债 ETFs decreased slightly overall, with Yongying achieving reverse capital absorption. The net inflow of shares last week was -31.73 million shares, a decrease of 1.15% from the previous week. As of February 27, 2026, the top - three products in terms of shares were 科创债 ETF Jiashi, 科创债 ETF Yinhua, and 科创债 ETF Penghua, with 221.81 million shares, 197.39 million shares, and 196.81 million shares respectively. 科创债 ETF Yinhua, 科创债 ETF Jiashi, and 科创债 ETF Zhaoshang had the top - three net outflows of shares, with 8.40 million shares, 7.63 million shares, and 7.00 million shares respectively. 科创债 ETF Yongying had the leading net inflow of shares (+4.60 million shares) [34]. - The net value continued to rise. As of February 27, 2026, the top - ranked products in terms of net value among 24 科创债 ETFs were 科创债 ETF Wanjia, 科创 ETF Huatai Bairui, and 科创债 ETF Yongying, with 1.0092, 1.0089, and 1.0088 respectively. The median net values of the first - batch and second - batch 科创债 ETFs last week were 1.0047 and 1.0073 respectively, up 0.03% and 0.02% from the previous week's close. The median net values of products tracking the CSI AAA 科创债, Shanghai AAA 科创债, and Shenzhen AAA 科创债 were 1.0068, 1.0051, and 1.0089 respectively, up 0.03%, 0.03%, and 0.02% from the previous week's close [42]. 3.5 Market Performance of Single Bond ETFs Last Week - The net values of bond ETF products generally declined last week. The 30 - year treasury - bond ETF, 30 - year ETF Boshi, and convertible - bond ETF Haifutong led the decline, down 0.67%, 0.63%, and 0.47% respectively from the previous week. In terms of premium/discount rates, convertible - bond ETF Boshi, 30 - year treasury - bond ETF, and treasury - bond ETF Huaxia had the leading premium rates, at +0.05%, +0.02%, and +0.02% respectively. In terms of scale changes, 科创债 ETF Yongying (+464 million yuan), convertible - bond ETF Boshi (+586 million yuan), and convertible - bond ETF Haifutong (+344 million yuan) had the leading net inflows [45]. 3.6 Marginal Changes in the PCF Lists of Benchmark - Market - Making Credit - Bond and 科创债 ETFs - The estimated modified durations of benchmark - market - making credit - bond ETFs decreased across the board last week. The average modified duration of bonds listed in the PCF list of each bond ETF was used as the estimated modified duration of the ETF. Among products tracking the Shanghai - market - making 科创债 index, the average modified durations of newly added bonds in the PCF lists of corporate - bond ETF Southern and credit - bond ETF Haifutong were 6.10 years and 4.32 years respectively. There were no repeated inclusions or exclusions of bonds in the PCF lists of benchmark - market - making credit - bond ETFs last week [48]. - The estimated modified durations of 科创债 ETFs generally shortened last week, with 科创债 ETF Tianhong and 科创债 ETF Dacheng experiencing relatively large shortenings. The PCF lists of each 科创债 ETF were adjusted slightly last week. The modified durations of newly added bonds were generally between 2 - 5 years. Among the excluded bonds, the average modified durations of bonds excluded from the PCF lists of 科创债 ETF Southern and 科创债 ETF Tianhong, which track the CSI AAA 科创债 index, were significantly longer, at 5.71 years and 7.87 years respectively [51]. - Yongtongshang K1 was repeatedly excluded from the PCF lists of 科创债 ETFs last week due to its upcoming maturity. Bonds such as 26 Shudao K2, 26 Jieneng K1, and 26 Jieneng K2 were included in multiple 科创债 ETFs and are newly listed bonds [53].