中国化学（601117）：己二胺价格上行，继续重视化工实业重估

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Viewpoints - The price of hexamethylenediamine (HMD) has been on the rise, with a significant increase in demand and pricing due to tight supply and rising raw material costs. The price dropped to a low of 17,100 RMB/ton by the end of 2025 but has since increased to 18,200 RMB/ton in early 2026, marking a cumulative increase of 1,100 RMB [2][11]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the chemical industry, with a focus on the price increases of chemical products leading to profit elasticity. The company has a diverse chemical portfolio, including products like adiponitrile and caprolactam, which are anticipated to contribute positively to earnings in 2026 [11]. - The company has signed new contracts worth 403.66 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10%. This growth in orders is expected to support stable earnings growth, with a projected double-digit growth rate for the year [11]. - The asset quality of the company is significantly undervalued, with approximately 80% of new contracts coming from chemical engineering projects with reputable clients. The company has a strong cash position, with 38 billion RMB in cash and a net cash position of 21 billion RMB, indicating a low valuation at 0.9x PB [11]. Summary by Relevant Sections Price Trends - HMD prices peaked at 26,500 RMB/ton in April 2024, followed by a decline to 17,100 RMB/ton by the end of 2025. Starting January 2026, prices began to rise again, with three consecutive increases leading to a price of 18,200 RMB/ton [5][11]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 254.6 billion RMB in 2026, with a gross profit margin of approximately 10% [14]. - The net profit for 2026 is expected to reach 7.8 billion RMB, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at 1.28 RMB [14]. Market Position - The company has a strong market position with a diverse portfolio in the chemical sector, including significant production capacities for various chemical products. The anticipated recovery in the chemical industry is expected to enhance profitability [11].