南华期货生猪产业周报：节后需求惨淡，能繁去化不及预期-20260302

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The core contradiction in the pig market last week was the significant divergence between the behaviors and expectations of upstream and downstream players under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The oversupply and weak demand led to a weak pig price and a new stage - low [1]. - The near - term trading logic includes dismal post - festival pork demand, the post - festival window period for frozen pork inventory, and whether secondary fatteners will enter the market when the price of standard pigs drops [3]. - The long - term trading logic involves the policy - led expectation of continuous capacity reduction of breeding sows and the early replenishment behavior of farmers driving up the piglet price [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestion 3.1.1 Core Contradiction - Upstream: Farmers accelerated concentrated slaughter before the Spring Festival due to bearish post - festival market expectations, resulting in a continuous shift of post - festival supply pressure. Although the average slaughter weight of large - scale farms increased, the overall enthusiasm for slaughter remained high, and the supply of suitable - weight pigs was abundant. Secondary fatteners' enthusiasm for replenishment declined after the festival, and the utilization rate of pens decreased, weakening the short - term support for pig prices [1]. - Downstream: The terminal consumption entered the traditional off - season. Although the slaughtering rate gradually recovered after the festival, it was still at a low level. The daily slaughter volume of sample enterprises decreased significantly compared with that before the festival. Slaughtering enterprises faced great profit pressure, which hindered price increases for procurement and the improvement of the slaughtering rate. They also lacked the willingness for large - scale inventory [1]. 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Suggestions - Base - spread strategy: The current pig base - spread is neutral, so continue to wait and see [9]. - Calendar - spread strategy: Choose to go long on the 05 contract and short on the 07 contract [9]. 3.1.3 Industry Customer Strategy Suggestions - Trend judgment: The pig price will fluctuate at a low level [12]. - Price range: The main contract will fluctuate between 11,500 - 12,500 [12]. - Unilateral strategy: For the main 05 contract of pigs, choose to buy the call option LH2605 - C - 11500 [12]. - Risk management strategies for pig enterprises: Different strategies are provided for inventory management and procurement management, including shorting futures, selling call options, buying put options, etc., with corresponding recommended ratios and entry intervals [13]. 3.2 Market Information 3.2.1 This Week's Main Information - Positive information: On February 26, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs officially released the 2026 pig production capacity regulation plan, aiming to stabilize market expectations. As of February 27, the average loss per self - bred and self - raised pig in the industry increased to 159.65 yuan per head, with a significantly deeper loss than before the festival [14]. - Negative information: As of February 10, the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens dropped to 19.5% (a decrease of 10.8 percentage points compared with the end of January), and the proportion of secondary fattening in actual sales was only 0.54%. In January 2026, the national inventory of breeding sows increased by 0.65% month - on - month, and the PSY reached 11.35, indicating a loose supply pattern in 2026 [14]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Main Information - Pay attention to the frozen pork inventory and the average slaughter weight of pigs [15] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - The main 05 contract of pigs opened at 11,500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and closed at 11,485 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 15 points or - 0.13%. The open interest was 155,000 contracts, an increase of 18,595 contracts compared with last week. The disk was in a volatile stage with little change [15]. 3.3.2 Base - spread and Calendar - spread Structure Analysis - Calendar - spread structure: The pig calendar - spread structure is in a Contango structure because of the dismal pig demand this week, the decline in spot prices, and the need for long - term inventory reduction. Whether the peak season can boost demand remains to be seen [17]. - Base - spread structure: As secondary fattening pigs were slaughtered one after another, the market supply increased. Although the slaughter volume of the slaughtering end increased, it had little impact compared with the increase in supply. The average slaughter weight of large enterprises first decreased and then increased, and the base - spread of the near - month contract rebounded slightly [19]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - Upstream and downstream profits in the industrial chain: As the pig price fell this week, the pig farming profit decreased, and self - bred and self - raised pigs suffered losses. Due to farmers' optimism about the future pig price, the increased pre - festival replenishment willingness pushed up the piglet price, and the gross profit increased month - on - month. In terms of secondary fattening, although the spread between standard and fat pigs strengthened, it was still negative, and early secondary fattening farmers slaughtered and made a profit. In terms of slaughtering, as the spread between white and hair pigs weakened, the profit of slaughtering enterprises decreased [21]. 3.5 This Week's Supply and Demand Situation 3.5.1 Supply - side Situation - Breeding sows: The inventory of breeding sows increased month - on - month, and the elimination of breeding sows was less than expected. The PSY level decreased month - on - month, and the average price of culled sows decreased month - on - month [26]. - Pigs: In 2025, the slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises remained high, and the inventory was at a three - year high. This week, the average slaughter weight remained stable [29]. - Piglets: The piglet price was relatively low compared with the same period last year, showing a seasonal upward trend. This week, the gross profit of piglets recovered and was close to the break - even cost line [31]. - Secondary fattening: The spread between standard and fat pigs strengthened this week, and the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens decreased [34]. - Feed: The prices of corn and soybean meal fluctuated, and the feed price remained stable this week [36]. 3.5.2 Demand - side Situation - Slaughtering: The current slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises was at a multi - year high. The slaughtering gross profit of pig slaughtering enterprises weakened, the cold - storage inventory gradually increased, and the inventory demand gradually started. Due to farmers' strong willingness to hold back sales and support prices, the procurement willingness of slaughtering enterprises decreased. This week, the slaughtering profit decreased month - on - month, and the average weight after slaughter did not change significantly [39]. - Terminal: The terminal consumption remained weak. The fresh - sales rate of slaughtering enterprises was at the lowest level in the past five years, and the spread between white and hair pigs was the worst in the same period [42]. 3.5.3 Import and Export Situation - Import: The import volume was at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years [48]. - Export: The export volume was at the highest level in the same period in the past five years [51]. 3.5.4 Cost and Profit Situation - The pig farming profit decreased, and the pig - to - grain ratio was monitored. The prices of corn and soybean meal fluctuated, and the cost of secondary fattening was analyzed [54][56].