SCS(SH:601555) China Post Securities·2026-03-02 08:06Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - The brokerage industry is experiencing significant merger catalysts, with Dongwu Securities planning to acquire control of Donghai Securities, which is expected to enhance market share and activate merger themes [5] - The industry fundamentals are showing a "loose bottoming and improving" trend, supported by extremely ample macro liquidity, with the 3-month SHIBOR dropping to 1.57% and the 10-year government bond yield declining to 1.78%, providing a low-cost funding environment [5][6] - Market trading sentiment has improved post-holiday, with average daily trading volume for stock funds rising to 2.92 trillion, and margin financing and securities lending balances stabilizing at 2.67 trillion [5][7] - Despite solid fundamental support, the brokerage sector's performance has lagged significantly behind the CSI 300 index, indicating potential valuation recovery opportunities due to the significant expectation gap and merger-driven events [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Fundamentals Tracking - Short-term funding remains extremely loose, with the 3-month SHIBOR stable around 1.60% and recently dropping to 1.57%, significantly lower than the levels seen in 2025 and 2024 [6][17] - Stock fund trading volume showed a recovery trend, increasing from 2.38 trillion before the holiday to 3.03 trillion by February 27, with a weekly average of 2.92 trillion, marking a 13.96% increase from the previous week [6][19] - As of February 27, the margin financing balance was 26,691.98 billion, up from 25,581.25 billion before the holiday, indicating a stable risk appetite in the market [7][20] - The bond market is active, with the new comprehensive index wealth index remaining stable and bond trading volume reaching 28,149.82 billion, benefiting brokerage self-operated investment businesses [8][23] - The 10-year government bond yield is reported at 1.78%, slightly down from 1.79%, reflecting a continued downward trend since the beginning of 2026 [9][25] Market Review - Last week, the A-share Shenwan Securities II industry index fell by 1.42%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.23 percentage points, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.72% compared to the CSI 300's 18.96% [10][28] - In terms of industry ranking, the A-share Securities II ranked 26th among 31 Shenwan primary industries, slightly outperforming the non-bank financial sector [10][30] - The top-performing brokerage stocks last week included First Capital with an 8.66% increase and Western Securities with a 2.56% increase [10][34]