Holly Futures(SZ:001236) Hong Ye Qi Huo·2026-03-02 11:00Report Information - Report Title: "Supply and Demand Weakness, Industrial Silicon Consolidating at Low Levels" [1] - Report Date: 20260302 [1] - Author: Zhou Guisheng [1] - Qualifications: F3036194 (从业资格证), Z0015986 (投资咨询证) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with expectations of improvement in March. The short - term market will maintain low - level fluctuations, and attention should be paid to changes in supply and demand and operating rates [2]. - Polysilicon is facing weak supply and demand, with high inventory levels. Affected by weak market sentiment, it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term [3]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Price - Spot prices are weakly stable. As of February 28, 2026, the price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from before the holiday; the price of 421 oxygen - passed was 8950 yuan/ton, also down 100 yuan/ton from before the holiday [2][6]. - Futures prices are fluctuating at low levels. As of February 27, the main contract closed at 8395 yuan/ton [2]. Supply - Large factories in Xinjiang's eastern plants maintain the pre - holiday production cut scale and are expected to resume production in March, with the specific time to be determined. In the southwest region, there is no obvious resumption of work after the holiday, and the operating rate remains low, resulting in overall tight supply [2]. Demand - The operating rate of polysilicon enterprises is stable compared to before the holiday. There will be a small amount of polysilicon production capacity resuming in March, but the increase is limited, leading to a moderate increase in demand for industrial silicon. The operating rate of organic silicon has increased compared to the Spring Festival period, but the overall operating rate is still low, with a small upward space in the future. The operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises has increased compared to before the holiday, and most recycled aluminum alloy enterprises resumed work before the Lantern Festival. In December, the export volume of industrial silicon was 54,900 tons, a 7% decrease from the previous month and a 2% increase year - on - year [2]. Cost - The cost of industrial silicon has remained stable this week [2]. Inventory - As of February 26, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was 560,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from before the holiday [2]. Spread - The spread between the benchmark delivery product and the alternative delivery product is stable. As of February 28, the spread between Yunnan industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 400 yuan/ton, the same as last week; the spread between Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 250 yuan/ton, also the same as last week [8][10]. Output - As of February 27, the number of open furnaces for national industrial silicon was 186, 1 less than before the holiday; the operating rate was 23.08%, a 0.12% decrease from the previous week; the weekly output was 69,900 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from the previous week [17]. Polysilicon Price - Spot prices have declined slightly. As of February 28, 2026, the price of N - type dense material was 54,500 yuan/ton, down 3000 yuan/ton from before the holiday; the price of N - type re -投料 was 55,500 yuan/ton, down 3000 yuan/ton from before the holiday; the price of N - type mixed material was 52,500 yuan/ton, down 2500 yuan/ton from before the holiday; the price of N - type particles was 52,500 yuan/ton, down 4000 yuan/ton from before the holiday [3][13]. - Futures prices have continued to decline. As of February 27, the main contract closed at 46,495 yuan/ton [3]. Supply - In March, affected by the increase in the number of days and the resumption of production in some bases in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, the output is expected to increase month - on - month. However, there is also production capacity shutdown and replacement, and whether the leading enterprises will resume production still needs to be observed [3]. Demand - Affected by the slow start of downstream demand and high inventory, the price of silicon wafers has been under downward pressure after the holiday. Currently, low - price orders have been digested, and silicon wafer enterprises are mainly in a wait - and - see mode, paying attention to the recovery of downstream demand. In December, the import volume of polysilicon was 1872.8 tons, a 77% increase from the previous month; the export volume was 1670.4 tons, a 48% decrease from the previous month [3]. Cost - The cost of polysilicon has weakened this week [3]. Inventory - As of February 27, the polysilicon factory inventory was 328,500 tons, an increase of 11,300 tons from the previous week [19][21]. Downstream Products Silicon Wafers - As of February 28, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm) and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) were 1.075, 1.075, 1.175 and 1.375 yuan/piece respectively, down 0.1, 0.1, 0.125 and 0.1 yuan/piece from before the holiday. After the holiday, the price of silicon wafers has slightly loosened, and the mainstream transaction center of gravity has moved down. In the short term, it may follow the decline of raw material prices, and attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand in March [25]. Battery Cells - As of February 28, the prices of M10 single - crystal TOPCon, G10L single - crystal TOPCon, G12R single - crystal TOPCon and G12 single - crystal TOPCon were 0.435, 0.435, 0.435 and 0.435 yuan/watt respectively, the same as before the holiday. The battery cell market is consolidating at a high level. Recently, the silver price has rebounded, and the cost pressure still exists, so the enterprise quotations remain stable [29]. Modules - As of February 28, the prices of 182 single - sided TOPCon, 210 single - sided TOPCon, 182 double - sided TOPCon and 210 double - sided TOPCon were 0.76, 0.785, 0.76 and 0.785 yuan/watt respectively, the same as before the holiday. After the holiday, the overall quotation is stable, and leading enterprises maintain the pre - holiday high ex - factory prices, but the actual transactions are lagging. Some traders sell at low prices to recover funds [32]. Organic Silicon - As of February 28, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 14,000 yuan/ton, the same as before the holiday. The operating rate of organic silicon enterprises is low, with a certain small upward space [35]. Aluminum Alloy - As of February 27, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 23,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from before the holiday. Recycled aluminum alloy enterprises are expected to resume production before the Lantern Festival and gradually return to the pre - holiday level [39].