双焦周报：需求逐步复苏，盘面预计震荡回升-20260302

Report Title - "Demand Gradually Recovers, Market Expected to Oscillate and Rise - Coking Coal and Coke Weekly Report 20260302" [1] Report Author - Zhou Guisheng, with qualification certificate F3036194 and investment consulting certificate Z0015986 [1] Market Views Coking Coal Fundamentals - Supply: The operating rate of 523 sample mines is 68.24% (+19.35%), and the daily output of clean coal is 64.9 million tons (+19.02). The capacity utilization rate of 314 coal washing plants is 22.73% (-9.55%), and the daily output of clean coal is 16.91 million tons (-7.43). After the Spring Festival, coal mine复产 increased, but the speed is slower than the lunar year. The import of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port has returned to a high level [3]. - Demand: The daily output of hot metal from 247 steel mills is 223.28 million tons (+2.79), the blast furnace operating rate is 80.22% (+0.09%), the available days of coking coal in steel mills are 12.65 days (-0.41), and in 230 independent coking plants are 12.28 days (-1.08). The downstream mainly consumes existing inventory, and replenishment is postponed [3]. - Inventory: The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines is 257.66 million tons (+6.04), the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants is 998.86 million tons (-80.23), the inventory of steel mills is 796.24 million tons (-27.89), the inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants is 298.93 million tons (-10.08), and the inventory of major ports is 271.97 million tons (+13.56). Currently, the inventory of mines and ports has slightly accumulated, while the inventory of coking plants, coal washing plants, and steel mills has decreased [3]. - Summary: Last week, the coking coal market was weak in both supply and demand. With the gradual recovery of hot metal output, downstream demand will increase, and there are still policy expectations during the Two Sessions. It is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the demand recovery [3]. Coke Fundamentals - Supply: The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants is - 7 yuan/ton (-1), the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking plants is 74.36% (+1.47%), the daily output is 64.29 million tons (+0.55), and the daily output of coke from 247 steel mills is 47.1 million tons (-0.13). The loss of coking plant profits has narrowed, and the resumption of production is optimistic [4]. - Demand: The daily output of hot metal from 247 steel mills is 223.28 million tons (+2.79), the blast furnace operating rate is 80.22% (+0.09%), and the available days of coke in 247 steel mills are 12.41 days (-0.05). As the hot metal output gradually recovers, the demand for coke replenishment increases [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants is 107.82 million tons (+7.54), the inventory of major ports is 197.1 million tons (-1.96), and the inventory of 247 steel mills is 675.11 million tons (-1.35). The overall social inventory of coke has increased [4]. - Summary: In terms of supply, the output of coking enterprises has increased after the Spring Festival, and the overall supply has slightly increased. In terms of demand, the steel mills mainly consume existing inventory, and as the hot metal output recovers, the demand for coke replenishment is expected to increase. The current supply - demand situation of coke is weak, but it is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the demand recovery [4] Macro - Real Estate Tracking - The report includes data on the year - on - year cumulative growth rate of national fixed asset investment, the year - on - year cumulative growth rate of new construction, construction, completion, and sales area of national real estate, the weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities, the purchasing manager index (PMI) of the steel industry, and the manufacturing PMI [6][10][14][18] Coking Coal Supply - Demand Tracking - Coking coal spot prices are oscillating. The basis of the main 05 contract warehouse receipts has rebounded slightly. It also tracks the daily output, operating rate, inventory, and the number of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port of Mongolian coal of sample mines and coal washing plants, as well as the hot metal output and blast furnace operating rate of steel mills [21][26][31] Coke Supply - Demand Tracking - It shows the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang, the spot price adjustment schedule and comparison of coke, and the basis of different contracts. The profit per ton of coke in coking enterprises has slightly recovered. It also tracks the output, capacity utilization rate, and inventory of coke in coking enterprises and steel mills [59][61][74]