格林大华期货早盘提示：钢材-20260303

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel price is expected to have little fluctuation during the Two Sessions and mainly fluctuate in the short term. The support level of rebar is 3000, and the pressure level is 3100. The support level of hot-rolled coil is 3180, and the pressure level is 3300. The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar may further converge. It is recommended to go long on hot-rolled coil and short on rebar and consider entering the market at a low price. The recommended take-profit is above 200 [1] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Market Review - Rebar and hot-rolled coil closed down at night on Monday [1] Important Information - On March 2, Anshan City launched a yellow (Level III) early warning for emergency response to heavy pollution weather. Currently, steel enterprises in Anshan are implementing production suspension and restriction measures, and some steel enterprises are implementing a 40% production cut [1] - According to the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, 95% of the coal-fired power generation capacity, 90% of the steel production capacity, 360 million tons of coking production capacity, and 470 million tons of cement clinker production capacity in the country have completed ultra-low emission transformation [1] - On March 2, Baowu Group's Central and Southern Steel signed a strategic cooperation agreement with China Pingmei Shenma Group. The two sides said they will actively promote the strategic deployment established by the group's senior management to tilt high-quality resources towards high-quality enterprises to achieve efficient resource allocation and complementary advantages [1] Market Logic - The situation in Iran has a limited direct impact on China's steel exports but a significant indirect impact. The short-term monthly impact on exports is about 1.1624 million tons. Last week, the production of both rebar and hot-rolled coil decreased, the inventory continued to rise, and the apparent demand decreased, which was in line with expectations. The construction industry downstream is short of funds after the Spring Festival, and the resumption of work is progressing steadily [1] Trading Strategy - It is expected that the steel price will not fluctuate much during the Two Sessions and will mainly fluctuate in the short term. The support level of rebar is 3000, and the pressure level is 3100. The support level of hot-rolled coil is 3180, and the pressure level is 3300. Based on the closing price, the spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar converged to 148 at the night session close. The spread may further converge. It is recommended to go long on hot-rolled coil and short on rebar and consider entering the market at a low price. The recommended take-profit is above 200 [1]