Jiayou International(SH:603871) GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-03-03 05:13Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the logistics and warehousing industry [4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the turning point for the China-Mongolia business has arrived, with a steady recovery in the traffic volume at the Ganqimaodu port, stabilizing short-haul freight rates, and a continuous rebound in the price of Mongolian coking coal, collectively driving the performance of JIAYOU International into a recovery phase [2]. Summary by Sections Traffic Volume and Freight Rates - The average daily traffic volume at Ganqimaodu port from February 23 to February 26 was 1,331 vehicles per day, representing an increase of 80.8% week-on-week and 53.1% year-on-year. Cumulatively, 49,684 vehicles have crossed the port in 2026, marking a year-on-year increase of 20.8% [4]. - The freight volume at Ganqimaodu port saw a significant year-on-year increase of 218% in February 2026, reaching 4.9525 million tons. By the end of Q3 2025, the cumulative import and export volume was 30.0266 million tons, with a narrowing year-on-year decline, and an annual total of 43.0585 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6% [4]. - Short-haul freight rates have stabilized and increased. In the first half of 2025, the average short-haul freight rate dropped by 34.5% due to fluctuations in domestic demand for Mongolian coal. However, with demand recovering, the average short-haul freight rate has stabilized in the range of 60-70 RMB/ton, with a cumulative average of 66 RMB/ton in 2026. From February 24 to February 28, the average short-haul freight rate was 65 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous period but up 8.3% year-on-year [4]. Financial Performance - JIAYOU International reported revenue of 2.486 billion RMB in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 30.61%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 313 million RMB, down 4.90% year-on-year. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 6.570 billion RMB, a slight increase of 0.40%, with a net profit of 874 million RMB, down 19.72% year-on-year. The increase in revenue and the narrowing decline in net profit are attributed to the recovery of cross-border business and rising prices of coking coal [4]. - The average market price of coking coal in the second half of 2025 increased by 29.13% to 1,383 RMB/ton. The ongoing "anti-involution" policy has stabilized coal prices, leading to a gradual recovery in demand for Mongolian coal, which in turn has boosted the daily traffic volume and short-haul freight rates at Ganqimaodu port, contributing to the continuous improvement in the company's performance [4]. - Long-term, the company has established a strong competitive advantage by strategically positioning itself in core logistics infrastructure at the port and advancing an integrated "goods and trade" business model, effectively consolidating its leading position and market share in the China-Mongolia business [4].