Luckin Coffee(US:LKNCY) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-03-03 10:59Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Luckin Coffee (LKNCY) [1] Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q4 2025 increased by 33% year-on-year to 12.8 billion yuan, while net profit decreased by 39% year-on-year to 500 million yuan, primarily due to lower same-store sales growth [3] - The target price has been adjusted from $49 to $45, indicating a potential upside of 30% [3] - The company added 1,834 new stores in Q4 2025, bringing the total to 31,048 stores, with 30,888 in China and 160 internationally [3] - Same-store sales growth for 2025 was 7.5%, with a decline to 1.2% in Q4 2025, attributed to reduced delivery platform subsidies [3] - Luckin Coffee launched over 140 new products in 2025, with monthly active transaction customers exceeding 100 million for five consecutive months [3] - The long-term outlook for the coffee sector remains positive, supported by the company's scale advantages, supply chain, product innovation, brand recognition, digital operations, and global expansion potential [3] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for Luckin Coffee are as follows: - 2024: 34,475 million yuan - 2025: 49,288 million yuan - 2026E: 57,104 million yuan - 2027E: 66,998 million yuan - 2028E: 76,866 million yuan - Net profit forecasts are: - 2024: 2,956 million yuan - 2025: 3,600 million yuan - 2026E: 4,303 million yuan - 2027E: 5,410 million yuan - 2028E: 6,378 million yuan - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2024: 1.16 yuan - 2025: 1.40 yuan - 2026E: 1.68 yuan - 2027E: 2.11 yuan - 2028E: 2.49 yuan - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to decrease from 23 in 2024 to 11 in 2028 [3][4]