铁矿石周报20260303：供需宽松，盘面窄幅震荡-20260303

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current iron ore supply and demand are loose, with the global shipment increasing slightly week - on - week and remaining at a high level year - on - year. Australian ore shipments decreased slightly, while Brazilian and non - mainstream ore shipments increased. The arrival volume decreased slightly, and domestic ore production decreased slightly. There is still supply pressure. [5][6] - After the Spring Festival, the hot metal production has rebounded, but steel mills mainly consume existing inventories, and the procurement enthusiasm is average. As the hot metal production gradually recovers in the later stage, it is expected that steel mills' procurement of raw ore will gradually increase. [6] - Port inventories are at an absolute high level, and steel mill inventories have dropped to a low level. Overall, with the recovery of demand in the later stage, there is expected to be certain support at the bottom. The strategy is low - level oscillation. [6] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price - Spot prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The 62% Australian powder ore forward spot price, Qingdao Port 62% PB powder price, and Tangshan 66% iron concentrate price are involved. [7][12] - The spread between high - and medium - grade ores widened, and the spread between medium - and low - grade ores remained stable. The spread between PB powder and Mac powder increased slightly. The 5 - 9 spread rebounded slightly at a low level, and the 05 basis decreased slightly. [13][16][21] - As of March 2, 2026, the spot price of Karara powder was 886 (up 27 week - on - week), the converted futures price was 832 (up 29 week - on - week); the spot price of PB powder was 754 (up 10 week - on - week), the converted futures price was 801 (up 11 week - on - week); the spot price of Super Special powder was 645 (up 7 week - on - week), the converted futures price was 844 (up 8 week - on - week). The high - medium grade spread was 132, and the medium - low grade spread was 109. The optimal deliverable product was 61.5% Brazilian coarse ore. [30] - The ratio of steel to ore fluctuated within a narrow range at a low level, and the ratio of ore to coke oscillated at a high level. [31] Supply - From February 23 to March 1, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3.3407 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 19,800 tons. Australian shipments were 1.9484 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 62,300 tons; Brazilian shipments were 737,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 51,100 tons; non - mainstream ore shipments were 1.2312 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 162,800 tons. The arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2.1469 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,500 tons. [5] - As of February 27, the daily average output of iron concentrate from 186 domestic mines was 43,240 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,100 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 55.34%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.68%. The mine concentrate inventory was 81,370 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,130 tons. [5] - The shipping price index increased slightly. The arrival volume decreased slightly and remained at a medium level. [54][58] Demand - In the week of February 27, the daily average hot metal production was 233,280 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,790 tons. After the Spring Festival, the hot metal production stabilized and rebounded, slightly exceeding market expectations, with certain rigid - demand restocking. [5] - Steel mill blast furnace profits decreased slightly, blast furnace operation increased slightly, and hot metal production increased slightly. [67][73] Inventory - In this period, the imported ore inventory increased slightly, the number of ships at the port decreased by 8 to 107, the port congestion decreased slightly, the arrival volume was at a medium level, and due to the significant decrease in the port clearance volume, the port inventory increased slightly, which put pressure on the ore price. Steel mill inventories decreased significantly and continued to maintain a low - inventory strategy. [5] - The port clearance volume decreased significantly, and the port inventory increased slightly. Australian ore inventory continued to increase, Brazilian ore inventory decreased slightly, coarse powder inventory remained at a high level, and lump ore inventory increased slightly. After the Spring Festival, steel mill inventories dropped to a low level. [82][86][102]